The Regina Leader-Post recently ran an editorial opposing my proposal for higher resource royalties. My response is printed in today’s edition: The Leader-Post’s October 28 editorial critiqued my suggestion that the government of Saskatchewan increase oil royalties. It emphasized volatile oil prices, the volume of oil production in Saskatchewan and competition with Alberta. In fact, all three issues strengthen the […]
Read moreI recently noted that, although the price of oil has fallen by half from its summer peak, it still approximately equals last year’s average. Last year was thought to be a time of very high oil prices. Beyond observing that most commodity prices are way down from their recent peaks, it is difficult to generalize because different commodities have followed […]
Read moreElection Conceals Deteriorating Labour Market The period covered by October’s Labour Force Survey included election day. Temporary hiring for the election increased public-sector employment by slightly more than private-sector employment declined. In particular, jobs disappeared in every goods-producing industry: manufacturing, construction, utilities, natural resources and agriculture. Since 2002, manufacturing employment fell by 350,000 largely because supply-side factors – rising energy […]
Read moreIt strikes me that progressive economists should talk less about the need for immediate fiscal stimulus, and more about the case for an extended period of public investment led growth. Of course, as we slide into recession, Canadian governments will likely shift from surpluses to deficits simply by not cutting spending as much as revenues fall in line with shrinking […]
Read moreHere’s a conundrum. Diane Finley was appointed as Minister of Human Resources and SKILLS Development, though the Minister she replaces was the Minister of Human Resources and SOCIAL Development. If you go to the web site for the Department of Human Resources and SOCIAL Development, you’ll find that the Minister is the Minister of Human Resources and SKILLS Development. http://www.hrsdc.gc.ca/en/corporate/ministers/index.shtml […]
Read moreHere is a particularly gloomy but I think realistic assessment from the Financial Times economics editor Martin Wolf who has become just as gloomy as Roubini. I fear outright deflation beckons if the G-20 leaders don’t get their act together in just two weeks. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6e23cdc8-a517-11dd-b4f5-000077b07658.html Preventing a global slump must be the priority By Martin Wolf Published: October 28 2008 […]
Read moreThe CCPA released today a new study by myself and Toby Sanger on the distribution of BC’s carbon tax and recycling regime. I’ve probably leaked most of the findings in various blog posts in recent months, but the full meal deal is now available for download here. Toby and I modeled the carbon tax by quintile based on household survey […]
Read moreLast night NDP Opposition Leader Carole James delivered her own televised address to the province, following on the Premier’s underwhelming address last week. This was a much better effort from James, with the speech probably aimed square at tomorrow’s two by-elections in Vancouver. With the BC election is still seven months away, this tit-for-tat game could get quite interesting by […]
Read moreI debated Bill Watson from McGill on the economic crisis and the need for a “Bretton Woods II” for a half hour or so on the Sunday Edition, on CBC Radio. I found him more than a tad complacent myself – markets will bottom out and it would be a mistake to re-regulate neo liberal global capitalism and imperil all […]
Read moreHere’s the full version of the summary posted earlier – a much longer analytical section, and more detail on our suggested policy response. http://canadianlabour.ca/en/clc-response-economic-crisis-full-version CLC Response to the Economic Crisis Global capitalism: on the edge of the abyss Dramatic recent events have thrown into sharp relief some chronic and long-standing problems of our global and national economic system: an over-developed […]
Read moreYesterday’s Leader-Post included the following report on my speech to the Saskatchewan Federation of Labour’s annual convention. My topic, “Is Saskatchewan getting a Fair Return on its Resources?,” may have been poorly timed given the recent crash in resource prices. However, it is important to put this crash in perspective. The current world oil price of around $70/barrel is still far […]
Read moreMurray Dobbin recently reminded me of and forwarded a very old article by David Robertson from the 1980s, published in the CUPE journal the Facts, which laid out some numbers on the scale and importance of the public sector vis a vis the whole economy. In search of comparable information, I explored StatsCan’s input- output model. (See Table below.) Spending […]
Read moreMarc recently noted the Bank of Canada’s announcement that it was cutting interest rates to increase future inflation up to the 2% target. In the comments section, Stephen argued that there is nothing noteworthy about the Bank trying to achieve this target. Everyone else contended that the Bank’s new line deviates significantly from its previously hawkish position on inflation. It […]
Read moreFrom today’s release of the Fiscal Monitor, updating federal finances to August, or five months into the fiscal year: There was a budgetary deficit of $1.7 billion in August 2008, compared to a deficit of $0.1 billion in August 2007. …For the first five months of the 2008–09 fiscal year, the budgetary surplus is estimated at $1.2 billion, down $5.5 billion from the $6.6-billion surplus reported […]
Read moreBC Premier Gordon Campbell made a live address last night about the impact of the financial and economic crisis on the province, and what his government is going to do about it. I was keen to see what creative projects Campbell had in mind to take the edge of a recession that has already hit in Interior and Coastal communities […]
Read morehttp://canadianlabour.ca/en/clc-response-economic-crisis-summary This call for government action was the result of deliberations at yesterday’s meeting of the CLC Executive Council, and reflects prior discussions among union economists. This is the summary. I’ll post the long version after it has bene translated and posted to the CLC web site. CLC Response to the Economic Crisis (SUMMARY) Global capitalism: on the edge of […]
Read moreThere is a new line of thinking over at the Bank of Canada: rather than raising interest rates to maintain the inflation target at 2%, the Bank is now stating that it might have to cut rates (beyond the 25 bp reduction today and 50 bp a couple weeks ago) to maintain the target. From a central bank that in […]
Read moreDigging through the rubble of the financial crisis, Jeffrey Sachs lays out his agenda for a new international financial architecture, aka Bretton Woods 2.0 (version 1.0 was the system laid out in 1944, composed of the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the ITO->GATT->WTO): First, we need to restructure global finance, based on an expanded system of capital adequacy […]
Read moreThe Bank of Canada was right to reduce its target interest rate this morning, but it did not go far enough. The labour movement has been proposing significantly lower interest rates for at least a year. Even the C. D. Howe Institute’s conservative Monetary Policy Council, which was calling for an interest rate hike only three months ago, proposed a […]
Read moreThey truly are a bunch of self-serving, greedy etc etc. … http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/oct/17/executivesalaries-banking The Guardian October 17 2008 Top Wall Street bankers to receive $70bn pay deals Simon Bowers Financial workers at Wall Street’s top banks are to receive pay deals worth more than $70bn (£40.4bn), a substantial proportion of which is expected to be paid in bonuses, for their work […]
Read moreFurther to Toby’s excellent post on Iceland. Here are some extracts from OECD Country Reviews – courtesy of Roland Schneider of TUAC – which show gross disregard for the risks as they were building. Economic Survey of Iceland 2006 Published on 9 August 2006 Chapter 1: Policy challenges in sustaining improved economic performance Iceland’s growth performance has considerably improved since […]
Read moreOr would that be red? Anyway, our “left-leaning”, Keynesian thinking is quickly becoming the new centre. Fresh from endorsing PM Harper’s re-election, the Globe and Mail’s editorial page says: The scarred memories of $39-billion deficits are still fresh in the minds of many Canadians. We have been conditioned to demand that government stay out of deficit spending. Under all but […]
Read moreLast night when I was watching the US presidential debate on Newsworld, the ticker told a one-line story that the Conference Board of Canada’s latest forecast for 2008 economic growth has been lowered to 0.8%. It was a redemption or sorts because back in February I testified before the House Finance Committee with Glen Hodgson of the Conference Board. I […]
Read moreI was intrigued by what is happening in Iceland, so the following is a piece I’ve written on it. It has some introductory macro-economics in it, which I think it is good to keep in perspective as we consider the frantic attempts being made to prevent an economic depression. The economic and financial collapse of 2008 is shaping up to be […]
Read moreIn Tuesday’s CBC interview, Harper told Canadians that “there are probably some great buying opportunities out there†and specifically pointed to “oil stocks.†Since then, the Toronto Stock Exchange declined by 8% and its Energy Index fell by 14%. S&P/TSX Composite Index Tuesday’s Close = 9,829.55 Friday’s Close = 9,065.16 S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index Tuesday’s Close = 234.16 Friday’s Close […]
Read moreWhat irks me about the Harperites’ non-response to the economic crisis is their claim that they have responded by bringing in tax cuts, announced in the Economic and Fiscal Update almost a year ago, and perfectly timed to the occasion. There is an argument to be made for tax cuts as a fiscal stimulus, although I think they will do […]
Read moreToday’s apparently rosy Labour Force Survey should not distract policy-makers from serious problems in Canada’s labour market. So far in 2008, full-time employment is down and unemployment is up. Wanted: Full-Time Jobs Total employment rose by 107,000 in September, far exceeding the modest uptick that one might have expected from temporary hiring by Elections Canada. However, as Statistics Canada notes, […]
Read moreToday’s Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) report provides the following estimates. Total Cost of the Afghanistan War (2001-02 to 2010-11): $18.1 billion Past Cost (2001-02 to 2007-08): $10.5 billion Future Cost (2008-09 to 2010-11): $7.7 billion These figures are incremental costs, “costs that would not have been incurred except for the operation. Alternatively put, these would be the total savings to […]
Read moreAs Andrew suggests, the largest of Harper’s promises for manufacturing could aggravate the manufacturing crisis by widening Canada’s largest trade deficit. Eliminating the few remaining tariffs on machinery and equipment imported from outside of North America would encourage purchases of foreign-made machinery and equipment instead of Canadian-made machinery and equipment. From January through July 2008, Canada’s trade in machinery and […]
Read moreDeficits. There. I said it. Are you afraid? You shouldn’t be. If, as I suggested in my previous post, monetary policy is proving ineffective and if fiscal policy needs to be a big part of the solution, then we must consider what for many has become the unthinkable. We must revisit our fear of deficits, that word — that state […]
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