In August 2008, ordinary Canadians were squeezed by rising annual inflation and slowing annual wage growth. The decline in consumer prices from July to August 2008 (-0.2%) was smaller than the normal seasonal decline in prices between these months. (On a seasonally-adjusted basis, Statistics Canada estimates that consumer prices rose 0.2%.) Compared to last month, the annual inflation rate edged up […]
Read moreBack in June, we co-awarded the first John Kenneth Galbraith Prize in Economics to Kari Levitt and Mel Watkins. Unfortunately, there was a snag with the transcription of Kari’s lecture and she had to recreate it. We now have the text and have posted it below. So congrats once again to both Kari and Mel for their outstanding contributions to […]
Read moreThe Liberals released a “costed” platform today. http://www.liberal.ca/platform_e.aspx There’s a lot to like here in terms of the Liberal Party’s programmatic commitments to child care , support for manufacturing investment, green job creation, public health care, student aid, basic infrastructure, dealing with poverty, and so on – but I stand by my earlier argument that they can’t balance the Budget, […]
Read moreI wrote this article for The Tyee, looking at the US financial crisis with a view towards the Great White North. Their version has much nicer formatting and a funny cartoon. Update: Check out this week’s This Modern World. US Meltdown Puts Heat on Canada By Marc Lee Watching the turmoil in financial markets this past week, the question is […]
Read moreHere’s a statement from the Secretariat of the Trade Union Advisory Committee to the OECD (TUAC) http://www.tuac.org/en/public/e-docs/00/00/03/13/document_news.phtml The dramatic events on the US and global financial markets in the past days – the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the takeover of Merrill Lynch by Bank of America and not least, the government bailing out of AIG, the largest insurer in the […]
Read moreThe Globe and Mail is carrying a report today on a possible Canada-EU trade deal, suggesting that negotiations will be launched shortly after the election. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080918.wtrade18/BNStory/International/home Described as a negotiation of deep economic integration, “the proposed pact would far exceed the scope of older agreements such as NAFTA by encompassing not only unrestricted trade in goods, services and investment and […]
Read moreI’m afrtaid you are going to have to pay for it, but this is an excellent review – from the current issue of the New York Review of Books – of what loooks to be an excellent book on the state of the American working class. http://www.nybooks.com/articles/article-preview?article_id=21798 Time for a New Deal By Jeff Madrick The Big Squeeze: Tough Times […]
Read moreWe all know the Conservatives are the “rational economic managers,” right? After all, their tax cuts, free trade agreements, and tough-love social policy are all motivated by the need to free the entrepreneurial beast within us, and allow us to pursue our natural proclivity to truck and trade with wild abandon. The productivity of the free market is the common […]
Read moreThe recent outbreak of listeria cast a glaring pre-election light on food safety, and made public the Conservative government’s plans to deregulate food inspection. Because regulation is what happens after legislation is passed, it is generally outside the purview of Parliament, and thus a minority government can engage in acts of deregulation rather quietly. For a blueprint of deregulation, Canadians […]
Read moreHarper today announced that he would include self-employed workers in EI for purposes of paid maternity and parental leave. Extending such EI coverage is a good idea, and Quebec has already done this through a provincial adaptation of the EI program which requires a separate provincial premium rate. In Quebec, partcipation by the self-employed is mandatory so they all contribute […]
Read moreIf you pay attention to economic issues you have probably heard that a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of declining real (inflation-adjusted) GDP. It is pretty arbitrary, but on this basis, the most recent numbers had Canada missing the cut-off for recession by a hair. Indeed, it was a downward revision to the first quarter GDP number (which […]
Read moreNow that Elizabeth May is set to join in the televised election debates, her party’s platform will come under greater scrutiny. There is much to like in it – especially a major investment program in energy efficiency, alternative energy, public transit and so on. Her commitment to seriously dealing with climate change and creating a new economy and new jobs […]
Read moreAs the federal political parties begin to make promises of new spending or tax cuts, the question arises as to how much fiscal room is available to Canada’s next government.The short answer is that the Conservatives and Liberals have locked themselves into the same fiscal box, and only the NDP has the room needed to make new commitments. As Erin […]
Read moreWell, the Tories are nothing if not consistent. During the NDP’s BC campaign against the carbon tax, I wondered whether they would follow the logic – if you don’t like a carbon tax then it only makes sense to call for a cut in the provincial fuel tax. Federally, the Harperites have seized the initiative on this one, building on […]
Read moreThe bed having been made by the NDP, the Prime Minister not only takes it but moves in and changes the locks. All summer the NDP’s axe-the-tax campaign against the BC carbon tax has played on a classic conservative anti-tax theme (to the dismay of yours truly). The BC election is not until May 2009, and who knows what will […]
Read moreIt has to go down as one of the most modest reponses to the manufacturing jobs crisis one could imagine. On Friday – literally on the eve of the election call -Â Human Resources Minister Monte Solberg announced that four Ontario EI regions – Huron, Niagara, Oshawa and Windsor – will be added to the list of high unemployment regions […]
Read moreAsked by the Globe what the “ballot question” should be for the upcoming election, Tasha Kheiriddin, Quebec Director of the Fraser Institute says: “It should be all about green – money, that is. With the price of oil dropping, inflation creeping up and the auto sector in tough times, which party can provide the steadiest invisible hand for our economy?” […]
Read moreMargaret Wente (“For Whom the Bell Curve Tolls”, today’s Globe) argues, based on a new book by Charles Murray that “educational romanticism has led us to believe that every student can become at least average, and that the right teaching strategies can close the achievement gap.†Some people are just dumb, and there’s not much that can be done about […]
Read moreThe August employment numbers seem modestly positive, but only in comparison to July’s ruinous numbers. Canada’s labour market weakened severely during the summer of 2008. The Employment Numbers in Context The creation of 41,000 private-sector jobs in August replaces fewer than half of the 95,000 private-sector jobs lost in July. The loss of 24,000 public-sector jobs in August wipes out […]
Read moreIt was reported today that Stephen Harper will go to Michaelle Jean on Sunday to ask that Parliament be dissolved and an election be held. But what if Jean said no? First, take a step back. An editorial in the Toronto Star put it this way yesterday: Prime Minister Stephen Harper is about to pull the plug on the 39th […]
Read moreThe politics of the carbon tax, largely a BC phenomenon until now, have gone national in the face of a likely October federal election. Just last week in BC, a poll revealed the NDP ahead of the Liberals for the first time in several years — within the margin of error, mind you, but significant for a party that has […]
Read moreFor a third consecutive announcement, the central bank’s communications department reused the headline, “Bank of Canada keeps overnight rate target at 3 per cent.” This repetition implies that central bankers have not perceived a fundamental shift in the balance of factors considered since they last changed interest rates four and a half months ago. In fact, much has changed in […]
Read moreThis story in the weekend Globe says that Hollywood raked in about $4 billion in revenues over the summer. A good chunk of this was Batman, with about half a billion in ticket sales (personally, I thought the movie was awful, apart from the stunning performance of The Joker). So it is pretty safe to say that the main folks […]
Read moreI have long subscribed to Challenge magazine, a generally progressive and accessible US economic journal which I recommend highly to readers of this blog. Individual articles can be downloaded, for a fee of $25. The current issue has an excellent piece by the LSE’s Robert Wade on the current financial crisis, which he sees as rooted not just in financial […]
Read moreMy take on today’s second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) release follows: Economy Shrinks, But Dodges Recession Canada’s GDP was lower at the end of June ($1,327,118 million) than at the end of last year ($1,328,606 million). Although the Canadian economy is smaller now than it was two quarters ago, it is technically not in recession because it did not shrink […]
Read moreWhat a cliff-hanger! 0.3% annualized growth for the 2Q, and no “official recession” (not yet, anyway). I win my own pool (with my 0.2% guess). I will devote my winnings to the CCPA. The other guesses are posted in the comments section of the original recession-watch blog post here: http://www.progressive-economics.ca/2008/08/09/jimbos-official-recession-watch-lottery/ Couple of tidbits in today’s GDP numbers: 1. If it […]
Read moreIn the second quarter of 2008, record oil prices outweighed the continuing manufacturing crisis, the worst services deficit ever recorded, and widening deficits in investment income and current transfers. The Surplus in Perspective The rise of Canada’s current-account surplus to $6.8 billion in the second quarter is positive news for the Canadian economy. However, this surplus is still less than last year’s […]
Read moreThe United Steelworkers union has been on strike at three Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan mines since August 7. This labour dispute raises much broader questions about the distribution of resource rents. The following op-ed, printed in today’s Regina Leader-Post, updates the op-ed printed in the Saskatoon StarPheonix before the strike. Workers, citizens miss potash profits The Leader-Post (Regina) Thursday, August 21, […]
Read moreComparing today’s Consumer Price Index figures for July 2008 with Labour Force Survey figures for the same month reveals that the annual increase in Canada’s average hourly wage (4.0%) barely exceeded the annual increase in Canadian consumer prices (3.4%). As a result, real wages rose by only 0.6% over the past year. In fact, relative to inflation, workers in Ontario […]
Read moreThe Task Force on Older Workers appointed by HRSDC Minister Solberg did endorse – in a limited way- labour’s call for severance pay to be ignored for EI purposes – but only for long tenure workers with a record of no prior EI claims in the previous 5 years. (My earlier post on this is http://www.progressive-economics.ca/2008/04/09/employment-insurance-and-severance-pay/ Similarly, they endorsed our […]
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