There is a new economics blog in town. http://www.3dpolicy.ca It is put together by former Finance Deputy Minister Scott Clark and former Director of Fiscal Policy, Peter Devries. I disagree with their fiscally very cautious line, but this is highly informed commentary on the numbers – with a major piece on the recent Economic and Fiscal Update – so do […]
Read moreThe CCPA today released a paper I wrote (“Big Train Coming” )as a framing piece for the Alternative Federal Budget and the upcoming federal and provincial debate over the turn to austerity at a time of high unemployment. Here is the media release: “Given the fragile economic recovery and the weak job market, now is not the time for a […]
Read moreThere are some interesting if rather subtle differences between the fiscal situation of the federal government as forecast in the last Budget, and that given to us yesterday in the Update. Not much change to the revenue picture, with 09-10 being a bit better than forecast, and next year being a bit weaker than forecast. Debt charges are a bit […]
Read moreThe Update of Economic and Fiscal Projections released today is fairly upbeat on the recovery in the job market, noting that “all of the jobs lost during the recession have now been recouped.” Well yes, but that still leaves us down 211,000 permanent full-time employee positions, with all of the net job creation over teh past year or so having […]
Read moreIt would have been interesting to listen in on the discussion of Bay Street economists with Finance Minister Flaherty earlier this week. Not all of the banks have current forecasts on line, and they differ somewhat in terms of detail and relative degree of optimism or pessimism. Nonetheless, it seems clear that growth in 2011 will likely be significantly lower […]
Read moreI was disturbed to read this comment on the current state of the US economy in Mark Carney’s speech last week. “The natural rate of (US) unemployment may be increasing sharply. The scale of industry restructuring means that some unemployed workers do not have the skills suitable for the expanding sectors. Other job seekers are tied to their local area, […]
Read moreNeil Reynolds has issued yet another diatribe in the Globe, “A Shameful Spending Spree” He argues that inflation adjusted government spending per person has grown by about 50% over the past 30 years. He uses 1982 as the base year. Was all this inflation-plus spending really necessary? Yes, it includes health costs and education costs but does every man, every […]
Read moreThe OECD Economic Survey of Canada (unfortunately only a summary is available on line) was released this week, and its call to impose user fees or deductibles on services covered by Medicare (ie physician and hospital care) received quite a lot of media coverage. I saw OECD economist Peter Jarrett doing at least two TV interviews here in Canada which […]
Read moreFor reasons that escape me, the Globe ran a headline front page story today on what all fiscal policy and Employment Insurance wonks have known to be true for some time. Under current legislation, and as announced in the 2009 Budget, the EI premium rate set by a supposedly autonomous but tightly constrained new body will rise by 15 cents […]
Read moreHere is a good piece by Tom Palley in the FT Economists Forum on where the Obama Administration should be moving in terms of economic (though I am not holding my breath until the economic team is dumped) http://blogs.ft.com/economistsforum/2010/09/plan-b-for-obama-on-the-economy/#more-11616
Read moreOne thing I find a bit annoying over at Statscan is that detailed tables related to a release sometimes appear on the web site a few days after headline numbers are released in the Daily. I was phoned by a couple of reporters seeking comment following the release of wage data (from the Survey of Employment, Earnings and Hours) in […]
Read more The ILO and the IMF are holding an important high level conference in Oslo on the “Challenges of Growth, Employment and Social Cohesion” on September 13. In advance, they have released an important joint discussion paper. The summary  – highly reflective of the ILO contribution but not contradicted by the IMF contribution – makes a number of the key points […]
Read moreThe Government of Saskatchewan wants nothing to do with a state (read China) corporation takeover of Potash Corp. The Globe reports: “The Saskatchewan government signalled Wednesday that it is unlikely to support a takeover of the Saskatoon-based company by a sovereign wealth fund or other state-owned firm from China or other large potash-buying nation. The fear is that the new […]
Read more With the US on the brink of a relapse into recession or, at best, a period of very slow growth and rising unemployment, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve. After all, it seems to be the only show in town. The conventional wisdom is that there will be no second round of fiscal stimulus forthcoming from the US […]
Read moreI got this wrong first time round. Krugman commends Nick Rowe over at Worthwhile Canadian Initiative for his spirited views and writing on monetary policy.
Read morePaul Krugman agrees with my view that the bond market is signaling long term economic stagnation rather than experiencing a bubble – and he is, of course, far more influential and cogent than I. “But the argument has become even stranger recently, as it has become clear that investors aren’t worried about deficits; they’re worried about stagnation and deflation. And […]
Read moreThe short answer to that question is that I don’t know. I am not a believer in the infallibility of financial markets and perfect information and all that stuff. But the bond market is surely speaking loud and clear. As an aside, the media focus excessively on the ups and downs of the stock market. But bond markets are at […]
Read moreYes, yawn, fiscal federalism is pretty darn dull. But it is also pretty darn important. The division of responsibilities and resources between the feds and the provinces is central to the shape of Canadian fiscal policy overall and to the level and design of a host of jointly financed programs, including health, post secondary education and infrastructure investment. I spent […]
Read moreStatement issued yesterday: RESOLVING THE CENSUS DEBATE Welcoming the Changes Announced on August 11th The National Statistics Council, the senior, external advisory group appointed by the government of Canada to advise the Chief Statistician, has noted the Government’s announcement that it intends “to remove threats of jail time for persons refusing to fill out the census†and its recognition that […]
Read moreThey are according to a couple of bank economists cited in a prominent story today’s Globe who think the big loss of education jobs in July (down 60,000) is due to a failure by Stats Can to properly calibrate seasonal adjustment to take account of supposed recent changes in employment patterns. They think many education workers are now laid off […]
Read moreThe Mark are running a contribution of mine on the latest job numbers and the continued need for special EI and job creation measures.
Read moreGwyn Morgan may have made a lot of money for EnCana shareholders, but I have rarely found his economic commentary in the Report on Business to be very well-informed. The main point he makes in today’s column “New Economic Order Demands New Attitude” is accurate if familiar – Canada participates in the global economy primarily as a commodity producer and […]
Read moreFrom my colleague CLC Senior Economist Sylvain Schetagne: The performance of the labour market in July 2010 was catastrophic. The unemployment rate is back up to 8.0%. The number of full-time jobs in Canada decreased very rapidly in July, when 139,000 full-time jobs were eliminated. The number of permanent employees fell by even more, by 144,400. Full-time job losses were […]
Read moreI’ve blogged previously on this topic but it is worth revisiting in light of the Census debate. The gold standard for looking at racial pay gaps is analysis of differences in earnings between Canadian born whites and visible minorities since this excludes differences between immigrants and non immigrants (most importantly country of education and work experience.) This is really only […]
Read moreWhile the Canadian economy has begun to recover from the “Great Recession†in terms of the level of GDP and overall job growth, unemployment and under-employment still remain well above pre-recession levels. The national unemployment rate in June 2010 was 7.9%, well up from 6.0% two years earlier. The number of unemployed workers was, at 1,475,000, still more than 300,000 […]
Read moreBack in June, the TD Economics group released a major report co-authored by Don Drummond: “The Productivity Puzzle. ” It provides a comprehensive overview of major studies and the empirical evidence, and should help spark some critical reflection. Progressive economists should agree with Drummond that productivity growth is vitally important to the growth of living standards over the medium and […]
Read moreThe following statement was released this morning. The key point is that the mandatory long form census should remain for 2011, and some changes are proposed moving forward including removing the never-used penalty of prison for non compliance. Seeking Solutions The National Statistics Council, the senior, external advisory group appointed by the government of Canada to advise the Chief Statistician, […]
Read moreA great piece of political analysis by Paul Saurette of Ottawa UÂ – from the Mark http://www.themarknews.com/articles/1907-when-smart-parties-make-stupid-decisions?page=1
Read moreI am a member of the National Statistics Council, an expert advisory group to Statistics Canada. We meet twice a year as a group with the Chief Statistician and senior Statscan staff. The members are a varied group of expert users of data. The Chair of the Council, Ian McKinnon, released this statement to the media last night. STATEMENT ON […]
Read moreOne thing that really bugs me about the mainstream media coverage of the economy is the frequently asserted view that the jobs recovery is now almost complete – meaning that total employment has returned to pre recession levels. As one example, the Globe’s coverage of yesterday’s interest rate increase referred to “Canada’s unique position as a rich country that has […]
Read more