I was out of the country but have the impression that the extremely gloomy OECD forecast and critical recommendations for Canada released just before the G20 London summit were not given the attention they deserved. http://www.oecd.org/document/59/0,3343,en_2649_33733_42234619_1_1_1_1,00.html The OECD released its intermim outlook largely to push the case for more stimulus by G20 countries, particularly those, like Canada, with strong fiscal […]
Read moreRather than blog furiously on this, here is an excellent substantive assesment from the international labour movement. http://www.tuac.org/en/public/e-docs/00/00/04/82/document_doc.phtml Having been on or about the fringes of the event, I’d see the main substantive outcome as the further institutionalization of global economic governance. The IMF gets increased resources and clout.. with some very modest strings of reform in terms of who […]
Read moreThe global economy is in free fall, gripped by what the International Monetary Fund calls the“Great Recession.†In a crisis that is unfolding everywhere at once, global trade and production are slumping, unemployment is soaring, pension funds are evaporating, big global banks are still teetering on the edge of insolvency (if they are not already insolvent), stock markets are cratering, […]
Read moreMost regular folks and media pundits seem to assume that the public sector is recession-proof – hence all those nasty calls for wage freezes, cuts and pension rollbacks on the part of supposedly cosseted government workers from the CFIB and other right-wingers. In point of fact, it’s a myth. Since October, 2008 – when employment began to fall – through […]
Read moreHere’s a perhaps rather obvious thought prompted by reading an outline of the next OECD Employment Outlook. In a period of high and likely prolonged unemployment, governments should increase their investment in training of the unemployed by an amount at least in line with the increase in unemployment. Budget 2009 fails that test. Spending on training under Part II of […]
Read moreSince October, 2008, the national unemployment rate has jumped sharply from 6.3% to 7.7% – driven entirely by job losses. The participation rate has fallen over the same period, from 67.8% to 67.4%. If this had not happened, the rise in the unemployment rate would have been even greater. As well, we have seen a shift to part-time jobs. The […]
Read moreA thought-provoking piece from the Asia Times – apparently China is drawing on hidden forex reserves to purchase real assets such as stakes in resource companies – diversifying away from the US Treasury bubble in a non trivial way and perhaps setting the stage for a collapse of the US dollar. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/KC18Cb01.html
Read moreTrade Unions to G20: Â Half Measures Will Not Fix Broken Global Economy Brussels, 23 March 2009 (ITUC OnLine): In a worldwide push for action by G20 governments to pull the global economy out of recession and chart a new course for job creation, financial regulation and global governance, trade unions across the world are today delivering a common set of […]
Read moreI happened to listen to the end of week media pundits on CBC Newsworld and CBC Radio late Friday afternoon. Most – especially Don Martin and Joan Bryden on Newsworld – seemed perplexed as to why former Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge might have chosen to be distinctly more gloomy abour our economic prospects than Steven Harper or Mark […]
Read morehttp://epi.3cdn.net/5986248785fbbcf2e6_ufm6iv2yk.pdf Prominent US economists endorse positive role of unions and call for support of Employee Free Choice Act
Read more(Additions made to this post since first posting.) The Prime Minister’s optimistic remarks about the prospects for Canada to get out of the recession faster than other countries just as the IMF and World Bank were announcing a Great Recession ring rather hollow (though, in truth, if I were in his shoes I would not be inclined to spread further […]
Read moreThe Liberals have promised to monitor the impact of the federal Budget through regular “report cards” on government performance. One key issue to look at is the adequacy (meaning inadequacy) of the EI program at a time of rapidly rising unemployment. The Budget did move very modestly on this front, adding five weeks to eligibility in each EI region, thus […]
Read moreOne of the silliest leads to an economic story I have read in a long time is on the front page of today’s Globe under this headline: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090303.wreconomy03/BNStory/Business “It’s Not all Doom and Gloom: GDP’s Drop Suggests Recession Will be Short.” The huge drop in output last quarter is perversely seen by the writer and some supporting bank economists as […]
Read moreI really enjoyed a recent piece by Tom Palley “After the Bust: The Outlook for Macroeconomics and Macroeconomic Policy.”  He argues with great assurance that only progressive Post Keynesian analytics can explain the crisis, and that we won’t get out of it with a bit of Keynesian tweaking of the neo liberal paradigm. http://www.levy.org/vdoc.aspx?docid=1116 “Change†was the buzzword of the […]
Read moreThe most obvious cause for concern regarding the meltdown of retirement savings vehicles is that current and future retirees will face major shortfalls in their retirement incomes. The scale of the problem reinforces the long-standing argument of progressive economists that we need to expand our system of public pensions moving forward, and reduce reliance on fickle financial markets and on […]
Read moreI am a great admirer of Arthur Donner and Doug Peters who have kept the flame of Keynesian economics alive in Canada for many years and regularly provide good progressive commentary. But I’m a bit out of sympathy with their column in today’s Toronto Star. http://www.thestar.com/comment/article/590916 Their major argument is that Canada now faces structural deficits, and that tax increases […]
Read moreI found this piece by David Harvey to be an absolutely brilliant and compelling analysis of just how difficult it will be to get out of this crisis, especially now that the global economy is visibly in free fall before our eyes. His argument is that there is no adequate political base in the US to sustain a solution radical […]
Read more(I prepared these as speaking notes for a workshop. They cover a lot of ground covered on this blog but they may be of interest.) The rapid descent of the global economy into what even the International Monetary Fund has begun to call a Depression will see very rapidly rising unemployment in Canada and around the world, likely to the […]
Read moreMartin Wolf of the Financial Times has written a pretty scathing critique of the new US Administation’s overhaul of the TARP program. I am increasingly convinced by Duncan Cameron’s argument that – in the US at least – the best way out is to nationalize the banks, run them as a public utility, and compensate the shareholders only if there […]
Read moreThis is a revised and more complete version of last night’s post: Impact on Jobs and the Economy What We Wanted The most important priority for the Budget was to stop the unemployment rate from rising to at least 8% this year and to double digit levels next year. “Fiscal stimulus†is not the same thing as running a deficit. […]
Read moreI’ve just read an excellent paper “From Financial Crisis to Depression and Deflation” by Hansjorg Herr of the Berlin School of Economics, circulated by the Global Union Research Network (but not yet posted to their web site.) Herr argues that demand deflation is inevitable in a downturn like the one we are in, but this becomes really dangerous for the […]
Read moreHuman Resources and Social Development Canada commissioned a research study, “Income Redistribution Impacts of the EI Program” and changes thereto from Ross Finnie and Ian Irvine for the 2005 EI Monitoring and Assessment Report. I obtained a copy through an Access to Information Request some time back, and to my knowledge it has not (yet?) been posted to the HRSDC […]
Read moreImpact on Jobs and the Economy Over 100,000 full-time jobs were lost in the last two months of 2008, confirming that Canada has followed the U.S. into a serious recession. Going into the Budget, the emerging consensus among economic forecasters (e.g., BMO and TD Bank) was that the Canadian economy would shrink by at least 1% in 2009, after almost […]
Read moreA well-timed release from StatsCan today that speaks for itself in terms of relevance to the current Budget debate: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/090114/dq090114a-eng.htm “Between 1962 and 2006, roughly one-half of the total growth in multifactor productivity in the private sector was the result of growth in public infrastructure. Public capital (the nation’s roads, bridges, sewer systems and water treatment systems) constitutes a vital input for […]
Read moreWe are now into full blown Budget consultation mode, with MPs of all parties going through a bit more than the usual pretence of listening before the actual Budget is finally put to bed by the government a few days hence. For once, even the Conservative inner circle seem a bit unsure of where to go. Below the closed (charmed) […]
Read moreThe transit strike in Ottawa is now in its second week, and life is horrible. Commuting has turned from frustation to nightmare, especially when snowfall makes things even worse. All of which leads me to the perhaps hugely obvious point that decent transit is self-evidently a very good thing for drivers like me and not just transit users, literally shaving […]
Read morehttp://www.tuac.org/en/public/e-docs/00/00/03/91/document_doc.phtml This is a very useful discussion/policy paper from Pierre Habbard of the Trade Union Advisory Committee to the OECD. Executive summary 1. The latest phase of the financial crisis that broke out in the summer 2007 was marked by a dramatic turn in mid-September with the collapse of Wall Street, US insurance group AIG, and the subsequent asset destruction […]
Read moreLabour’s Plan was developed by the CLC in consultation with economists from our affiliates. It has been submitted to all of the party leaders and economic critics. The Summary is followed by elaboration of each of the five main points. (This document does not deal with financial regulation and international economic issues.) http://canadianlabour.ca/sites/clc/files/laboursplanfullEn.pdf
Read moreMy colleague Sylvain Schetagne prepared this Update on Economic Stimulus packages announced as of December 10. Quite a few governments do seem prepared to act on the IMF recommendation to provide significant stimulus, but there’s a wide range of approaches. Introduction Last November, leaders of the world’s 20th largest economies, know as the G20, met in Washington to discuss the […]
Read moreI highly recommend “The Credit Crunch: Housing Bubbles, Globalisation and the Worldwide Economic Crisis” by Graham Turner. “Graham Turner is one of only a handful of economists to understand the roots of the current financial crisis, its implications for all of us and crucially what should be done now. I strongly recommend you read this book.” —Larry Elliott, Guardian “A […]
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