This week, I am back home in Saskatchewan, where debate on TILMA is really heating up. (My location and time zone also explain why Andrew filled in for me on today’s Labour Force Survey.) Brad Wall leads the Saskatchewan Party (the renamed Conservatives) and hence the Official Opposition. While some TILMA proponents have withdrawn from the deeply flawed Conference Board […]
Read moreAn unstated, and almost certainly correct, assumption underlying the speculation about a spring campaign is that the Harper government’s defeat on a confidence vote would result in an election. However, as Andrew Coyne correctly points out, the Governor General could instead call upon someone other than Harper to form a government able to command the House’s confidence. Harper would want […]
Read moreThomas Palley credibly suggests that the Bush White House has been driving up oil prices by expanding this reserve, but then lowering them during American elections by depleting the reserve. I have also heard suggestions that the Clinton White House depleted the reserve at election time, but am not sure whether it expanded the reserve outside of elections. Manipulating the Reserve by Thomas […]
Read moreThe presentations from the Ottawa Economics Association’s 2007 Policy Conference are now available online. They include a fascinating exposition on China’s manufacturing sector, a business perspective on Canadian manufacturing, Buzz Hargrove on the Canadian economy, and the Fraser Institute’s take on global warming.
Read morePatrick Grady, a former senior Finance official and leading mainstream economist, has weighed in on the Conference Board’s estimate of TILMA’s economic benefits. He cites the paper that Marc and I wrote and reiterates the points first made on this blog. He also notes that the Conference Board’s own forecast of BC’s economic-growth rate does not seem to reflect its […]
Read moreThe following note, including tables, is available on the Canadian Labour Congress website: Free trade was promoted to Canadians on the famous promise of “jobs, jobs, and more jobs†and is widely defended on the basis that Canada’s large trade surplus with the US contributes to Canadian employment. Meanwhile, American commentators are concerned that the US trade deficit displaces American […]
Read moreAs the National Union of Public and General Employees reports, the Ottawa and District Labour Council played a key role in initiating this investigation: OPP investigation launched, thanks to Ottawa labour council The question remains – why was it left to an outside group like the labour council to take the initiative?Ottawa (28 March 2007) – Thanks to the Ottawa […]
Read moreThe Saskatchewan Urban Municipalities Association has rejected TILMA. P. S. – The paper that Marc and I wrote on TILMA is now available in French.
Read moreKen Georgetti and leaders of major manufacturing unions just finished meeting with the Prime Minister about Canada’s ongoing manufacturing crisis. The Canadian Labour Congress briefing note quoted by The Globe and Mail online follows: The Manufacturing Crisis Overview Canada’s manufacturing sector is in crisis. High energy prices, a high dollar, and worsening trade deficits with Asia have caused many Canadian […]
Read moreBudget 2007 promised a new Expenditure Management System and provides a glimpse of what the Conservatives might have in mind. The Budget Plan boldly “proposes to provide a 25-per-cent investment tax credit to businesses that create new child care spaces” (p. 124). However, it allocates no money for this “Investment Tax Credit for Child Care Spaces” (p. 374). In its […]
Read moreAs advertised on page B7 of today’s Globe and Mail, Hill & Knowlton has promoted Don Boudria from “part-time” Senior Associate to “full-time” Senior Counsellor. Boudria, the former Liberal Whip and House Leader, chaired Dion’s leadership campaign. He attended all of the parliamentary-committee hearings on C-257 to oppose the Bill. In recent days, he visited Liberal MPs who had voted […]
Read moreOntario’s 2007 Budget just came out and it includes a minimum wage increase to $10.25 per hour in 2010.
Read moreIn yesterday’s Financial Post, Jack Mintz repeated the notions that the Budget featured “no broad tax relief” and big spending. He wrote, “Certainly, the idea of making the tax structure more efficient, fair and simple takes a back seat to the rash of special politically driven measures.” However, the tax measures that Mintz specifically endorses – the Child Tax Credit, […]
Read moreLast night, the House of Commons defeated Bill C-257, “An Act to amend the Canada Labour Code (replacement workers),” by a vote of 177 to 122. All NDP and Bloc MPs, about forty Liberals, and one brave Conservative voted in favour. Although the Bill did not pass, the labour movement’s efforts on this issue have achieved at least three important […]
Read moreIn contrast to my last post, much of the business press and many conservative commentators have characterized Budget 2007 as “big spending” with “no broad-based tax cuts.” These claims reflect two (usually unstated) contentions: that spending should be measured in absolute terms rather than in relation to the economy and that tax credits are not tax cuts. Andrew Coyne is probably the […]
Read moreOverview Budget 2007 erodes the federal government’s capacity to improve the lives of working people. Tax cuts will benefit profitable corporations without increasing investment in the Canadian economy. The federal government will continue subsidizing oil-sands extraction for nearly a decade. Increased transfers to provincial governments may serve important public purposes, but the Budget’s general thrust is to reduce the proportion […]
Read more“Balkanization of our national economic space . . . thicket of provincial barriers.” – Conference Board of Canada, Mission Possible, 2007 “Our federation has been a ‘mini global economy’ for decades. There are virtually no internal barriers to labour and capital mobility, and no tariff-like distortions on interprovincial trade.” – Robin Boadway, “National Tax Policy for an International Economy: Comments,” […]
Read moreOne problem with the new Conservative child-care transfer appears to be that it would provide less money to provincial governments than the NDP-Liberal plan would have. Another problem is that it may entail even fewer guidelines about how the money is used. Nevertheless, this new approach seems much better than the Conservatives’ previous policy of providing tax cuts to employers. […]
Read moreThe Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives released its alternative budget today.
Read moreMonday’s federal budget will certainly reaffirm the corporate-tax reductions already scheduled through 2011 and may announce further reductions. Between 2001 and 2004, the federal government reduced its corporate-income-tax rate from 28% to 21% and began phasing out its corporate-capital tax. It has committed to eliminate the corporate surtax and reduce the corporate-income-tax rate to 18.5% between 2008 and 2011. These latter reductions […]
Read moreOpponents of Bill C-257 need to identify a purpose served by replacement workers other than strengthening the bargaining position of employers in relation to their employees. Hence the misleading claim that replacement workers are needed to provide essential services during labour disputes. Matthew Coon Come, a former aboriginal political leader who became a corporate CEO, has lent his support to […]
Read moreThis morning, Statistics Canada released its Labour Force Survey figures for February. My analysis, which was included in the CLC’s press release, follows: Manufacturing Crisis Deepens Canada lost 35,000 manufacturing jobs between January and February. This staggering one-month decline pushes the cumulative loss to 250,000 since Canadian manufacturing peaked in November 2002. Most of February’s devastating decline took place in […]
Read moreAdvantage Canada is the “economic plan” released with November’s Economic and Fiscal Update. In reading through it yesterday, I was struck by its statements about a couple of “free trade” agreements. Trade, Investment and Labour Mobility Agreement (TILMA) Marc and I demonstrate that there are few tangible examples of trade barriers between provinces and no evidence that such barriers entail significant […]
Read moreYesterday, Finance Canada released “Tax Expenditures and Evaluations 2006.” The tax-expenditure figures confirm Andrew’s suggestion that the partial inclusion of capital gains now costs the federal government about $3 billion per year of forgone personal taxes: the 2006 projection is $3.1 billion. This partial inclusion cost an additional $3.4 billion of forgone corporate taxes that year. By comparison, the research-and-development […]
Read moreI hope that enough Liberals and Conservatives will vote for Bill C-257 to pass it on March 21. However, Stephan Dion and his labour critic have announced that they will not support it because the Speaker ruled their essential-service amendments inadmissable. The Canada Labour Code already protects essential services during labour disputes. Workers in federally regulated industries are permitted to […]
Read moreThe following is intended to be a complete and accessible list of papers, but not articles, on TILMA. If I have missed anything, please link to it in a “comment.” Criticism of TILMA Gerlach, Loretta. Examining the Implications of TILMA for Saskatchewan. Regina: Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, 2006. Gould, Ellen. Asking for Trouble: The Trade, Investment and Labour Mobility […]
Read moreYesterday and the day before, several newspapers posted the following story about TILMA. Although it is disappointing to read uncritical reporting of the Conference Board’s $4.8-billion figure, it is good to see the Canadian Press report that “The NDP governments in Saskatchewan and Manitoba have said they’re not interested in signing on.” While opponents of TILMA should remain vigilant in Saskatchewan […]
Read moreTo flesh out the cost-effectiveness issue outlined below, consider the following figures. McKenzie estimates that a 10% decrease in the cost of R&D due to a tax credit increases R&D by 2% in the short term and 7% in the long term, but that a 10% decrease in the effective tax rate on production increases R&D by 3% in the […]
Read moreThis afternoon, I attended Kenneth McKenzie’s presentation at Industry Canada on “Taxes, R&D and Enterprise Formation.” To a large extent, it was based on his C. D. Howe Institute Commentary. His main message is that governments seeking to promote R&D can “push” by reducing its cost through incentives (i.e. subsidies) or “pull” by increasing its benefit through lower taxes on […]
Read moreIn setting monetary policy, the Bank of Canada emphasizes “Core CPI,” which excludes the most volatile components of the Consumer Price Index to provide a clearer measure of underlying trends. My last post noted that average Canadian wage increases exceeded inflation by only 1% during the past year. However, inflation was held down by a dip in energy prices. Therefore, […]
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