The PEF got a plug in the Toronto Star today. This article by Linda Diebel noted our open letter on the economic crisis and interviewed a few of our signatories. Overall it is a good article and the comments of a few signatories are excellent. We really appreciate the plug, but I should note, as PEF Chair, that those interviewed […]
Read moreThe following sign-on letter comes from PEF steering committee members Louis-Philippe Rochon and Mario Seccareccia, who challenge us to think differently about the role of deficits in fiscal policy. The Toronto Star’s Carol Goar recently published an article based on the letter. A NOTE ON DEFICITS AND FUNCTIONAL FINANCE EXPENDITURES Louis-Philippe Rochon, Associate Professor of economics, Laurentian University Mario Seccareccia, […]
Read moreThe CCPA released an Alternative EFU today by yours truly (with lots of helpful comments from other PEF bloggers!). It is available here. The EFU is a prelude to the feds’ own EFU to be released Thursday. I modeled four scenarios of economic downturn to see what the status quo deficits look like, as other analyses to date have not […]
Read moreThis is very good news, given concerns that the economic crisis would push climate change off the table: Barack Obama and congressional leaders are preparing rapid legislation to cut US emissions that cause global warming and to kick-start a clean energy revolution. Two bills are to be introduced as soon as the President-elect takes office in January. One will provide […]
Read moreThe financial crisis and economic downturn have led to some silly ideas, namely, completing the Doha Round of trade talks at the WTO, and in Canada, a variant around eliminating inter-provincial trade barriers. BC Premier Gordon Campbell has pressed for the latter, in spite of scant evidence that any meaningful barriers actually exist (the perception, however, runs deep with the […]
Read moreMany have noted that central bank lowering of short-term interest rates is running up against its limits, and we are hearing calls for major fiscal stimulus, i.e. large deficits. In a normal world, this raises the spectre of the government having to sell bonds to the private sector to get the funds, which could actually increase long-term interest rates and […]
Read moreCanada now has a Parliamentary Budget Office to make budget projections for the Minister of Finance. This office in no small part owes its existence to the CCPA’s Alternative Federal Budget, which under Jim Stanford’s guidance, was the first and only voice to call the then-Liberal government on its excessively prudent (read: wrong) budget projections, and was so for years. […]
Read moreI’m just back from visiting family in England, and got to have a first-hand look at how the economic crisis is playing out on the other side of the Atlantic. Suffice it to say, it is the dominant story. Before we left, the Bank of England cut short-term interest rates by 1.5% and it was revealed that they had contemplated […]
Read more“I think there’s probably a lot of great buying opportunities emerging in the stock market as a consequence of all this panic.†– Prime Minister Stephen Harper, Oct 7, 2008, cited in the Globe from his CBC interview The TSX index closed that day at 9829.55 Today’s close was 7724.76. Thus, the TSX has dropped 21.4% since Harper issued his […]
Read moreThe CCPA released today a new study by myself and Toby Sanger on the distribution of BC’s carbon tax and recycling regime. I’ve probably leaked most of the findings in various blog posts in recent months, but the full meal deal is now available for download here. Toby and I modeled the carbon tax by quintile based on household survey […]
Read moreLast night NDP Opposition Leader Carole James delivered her own televised address to the province, following on the Premier’s underwhelming address last week. This was a much better effort from James, with the speech probably aimed square at tomorrow’s two by-elections in Vancouver. With the BC election is still seven months away, this tit-for-tat game could get quite interesting by […]
Read moreFrom today’s release of the Fiscal Monitor, updating federal finances to August, or five months into the fiscal year: There was a budgetary deficit of $1.7 billion in August 2008, compared to a deficit of $0.1 billion in August 2007. …For the first five months of the 2008–09 fiscal year, the budgetary surplus is estimated at $1.2 billion, down $5.5 billion from the $6.6-billion surplus reported […]
Read moreBC Premier Gordon Campbell made a live address last night about the impact of the financial and economic crisis on the province, and what his government is going to do about it. I was keen to see what creative projects Campbell had in mind to take the edge of a recession that has already hit in Interior and Coastal communities […]
Read moreThere is a new line of thinking over at the Bank of Canada: rather than raising interest rates to maintain the inflation target at 2%, the Bank is now stating that it might have to cut rates (beyond the 25 bp reduction today and 50 bp a couple weeks ago) to maintain the target. From a central bank that in […]
Read moreDigging through the rubble of the financial crisis, Jeffrey Sachs lays out his agenda for a new international financial architecture, aka Bretton Woods 2.0 (version 1.0 was the system laid out in 1944, composed of the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the ITO->GATT->WTO): First, we need to restructure global finance, based on an expanded system of capital adequacy […]
Read moreOr would that be red? Anyway, our “left-leaning”, Keynesian thinking is quickly becoming the new centre. Fresh from endorsing PM Harper’s re-election, the Globe and Mail’s editorial page says: The scarred memories of $39-billion deficits are still fresh in the minds of many Canadians. We have been conditioned to demand that government stay out of deficit spending. Under all but […]
Read moreLast night when I was watching the US presidential debate on Newsworld, the ticker told a one-line story that the Conference Board of Canada’s latest forecast for 2008 economic growth has been lowered to 0.8%. It was a redemption or sorts because back in February I testified before the House Finance Committee with Glen Hodgson of the Conference Board. I […]
Read moreWhat irks me about the Harperites’ non-response to the economic crisis is their claim that they have responded by bringing in tax cuts, announced in the Economic and Fiscal Update almost a year ago, and perfectly timed to the occasion. There is an argument to be made for tax cuts as a fiscal stimulus, although I think they will do […]
Read moreLettre ouverte de la part d’économistes canadiens à propos de la crise économique actuelle et la réponse du gouvernement qui s’impose La crise financière mondiale qui s’aggrave, la chute des prix des matières premières à l’échelle mondiale et le risque grandissant d’une récession mondiale dévoilent des faiblesses inquiétantes de l’économie canadienne. Le simple fait de nous en remettre à nos […]
Read moreThe Progressive Economics Forum’s open letter is now making the rounds. Signatories include four chairs of economics departments, two former Presidents of the Canadian Economics Association, a former federal Secretary of State (Finance), and a former Quebec Minister of Industry. Here’s the text and the 88 signatories: Open Letter from Canadian Economists on the Current Economic Crisis and the Appropriate […]
Read moreMore than anything else, BC’s carbon tax is the victim of bad timing. Here’s the average gas price in Vancouver over the past year, according to the BC Gas Buddy: Note that the BC Budget, which announced the carbon tax, was tabled on February 19, and the tax was implemented on July 1. In that time, prices at the pump […]
Read morePolls and elections go together like right-wingers and tax cuts, but this election campaign seems to be particularly poll-obsessed. The media’s coverage has been weak on issues with excessive attention on the horse race among the main parties. In those polls what is most striking to me is how little has changed since the 2006 election. The Conservatives got 36.3% […]
Read moreA salvo from Armine Yalnizyan on the bailout: GAJILLION DOLLAR BAILOUTS: FIVE THINGS TO THINK ABOUT By Armine Yalnizyan, Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives As the US government continues to figure out just how much it will take to bail out financial markets, up to the tune of $1 trillion dollars, the sound of Dr. Evil’s voice creeps into in […]
Read moreSince Galbraith has appeared in two recent posts, a timely salvo came to me from Christopher Nowlin: I happen to think that Galbraith’s 1958 classic, The Affluent Society, speaks more loudly to today’s social, economic, political and environmental troubles in North America than it did to post WWII America’s. I even gave a public talk to this effect in April of this […]
Read moreBack in June, we co-awarded the first John Kenneth Galbraith Prize in Economics to Kari Levitt and Mel Watkins. Unfortunately, there was a snag with the transcription of Kari’s lecture and she had to recreate it. We now have the text and have posted it below. So congrats once again to both Kari and Mel for their outstanding contributions to […]
Read moreI wrote this article for The Tyee, looking at the US financial crisis with a view towards the Great White North. Their version has much nicer formatting and a funny cartoon. Update: Check out this week’s This Modern World. US Meltdown Puts Heat on Canada By Marc Lee Watching the turmoil in financial markets this past week, the question is […]
Read moreThe recent outbreak of listeria cast a glaring pre-election light on food safety, and made public the Conservative government’s plans to deregulate food inspection. Because regulation is what happens after legislation is passed, it is generally outside the purview of Parliament, and thus a minority government can engage in acts of deregulation rather quietly. For a blueprint of deregulation, Canadians […]
Read moreIf you pay attention to economic issues you have probably heard that a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of declining real (inflation-adjusted) GDP. It is pretty arbitrary, but on this basis, the most recent numbers had Canada missing the cut-off for recession by a hair. Indeed, it was a downward revision to the first quarter GDP number (which […]
Read moreWell, the Tories are nothing if not consistent. During the NDP’s BC campaign against the carbon tax, I wondered whether they would follow the logic – if you don’t like a carbon tax then it only makes sense to call for a cut in the provincial fuel tax. Federally, the Harperites have seized the initiative on this one, building on […]
Read moreThe bed having been made by the NDP, the Prime Minister not only takes it but moves in and changes the locks. All summer the NDP’s axe-the-tax campaign against the BC carbon tax has played on a classic conservative anti-tax theme (to the dismay of yours truly). The BC election is not until May 2009, and who knows what will […]
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