Many have noted that central bank lowering of short-term interest rates is running up against its limits, and we are hearing calls for major fiscal stimulus, i.e. large deficits. In a normal world, this raises the spectre of the government having to sell bonds to the private sector to get the funds, which could actually increase long-term interest rates and […]
Read moreCanada now has a Parliamentary Budget Office to make budget projections for the Minister of Finance. This office in no small part owes its existence to the CCPA’s Alternative Federal Budget, which under Jim Stanford’s guidance, was the first and only voice to call the then-Liberal government on its excessively prudent (read: wrong) budget projections, and was so for years. […]
Read moreI’m just back from visiting family in England, and got to have a first-hand look at how the economic crisis is playing out on the other side of the Atlantic. Suffice it to say, it is the dominant story. Before we left, the Bank of England cut short-term interest rates by 1.5% and it was revealed that they had contemplated […]
Read moreIt strikes me that progressive economists should talk less about the need for immediate fiscal stimulus, and more about the case for an extended period of public investment led growth. Of course, as we slide into recession, Canadian governments will likely shift from surpluses to deficits simply by not cutting spending as much as revenues fall in line with shrinking […]
Read moreLast night NDP Opposition Leader Carole James delivered her own televised address to the province, following on the Premier’s underwhelming address last week. This was a much better effort from James, with the speech probably aimed square at tomorrow’s two by-elections in Vancouver. With the BC election is still seven months away, this tit-for-tat game could get quite interesting by […]
Read moreMurray Dobbin recently reminded me of and forwarded a very old article by David Robertson from the 1980s, published in the CUPE journal the Facts, which laid out some numbers on the scale and importance of the public sector vis a vis the whole economy. In search of comparable information, I explored StatsCan’s input- output model. (See Table below.) Spending […]
Read moreFrom today’s release of the Fiscal Monitor, updating federal finances to August, or five months into the fiscal year: There was a budgetary deficit of $1.7 billion in August 2008, compared to a deficit of $0.1 billion in August 2007. …For the first five months of the 2008–09 fiscal year, the budgetary surplus is estimated at $1.2 billion, down $5.5 billion from the $6.6-billion surplus reported […]
Read moreBC Premier Gordon Campbell made a live address last night about the impact of the financial and economic crisis on the province, and what his government is going to do about it. I was keen to see what creative projects Campbell had in mind to take the edge of a recession that has already hit in Interior and Coastal communities […]
Read morehttp://canadianlabour.ca/en/clc-response-economic-crisis-summary This call for government action was the result of deliberations at yesterday’s meeting of the CLC Executive Council, and reflects prior discussions among union economists. This is the summary. I’ll post the long version after it has bene translated and posted to the CLC web site. CLC Response to the Economic Crisis (SUMMARY) Global capitalism: on the edge of […]
Read moreThe Bank of Canada was right to reduce its target interest rate this morning, but it did not go far enough. The labour movement has been proposing significantly lower interest rates for at least a year. Even the C. D. Howe Institute’s conservative Monetary Policy Council, which was calling for an interest rate hike only three months ago, proposed a […]
Read moreOr would that be red? Anyway, our “left-leaning”, Keynesian thinking is quickly becoming the new centre. Fresh from endorsing PM Harper’s re-election, the Globe and Mail’s editorial page says: The scarred memories of $39-billion deficits are still fresh in the minds of many Canadians. We have been conditioned to demand that government stay out of deficit spending. Under all but […]
Read moreLast night when I was watching the US presidential debate on Newsworld, the ticker told a one-line story that the Conference Board of Canada’s latest forecast for 2008 economic growth has been lowered to 0.8%. It was a redemption or sorts because back in February I testified before the House Finance Committee with Glen Hodgson of the Conference Board. I […]
Read moreWhat irks me about the Harperites’ non-response to the economic crisis is their claim that they have responded by bringing in tax cuts, announced in the Economic and Fiscal Update almost a year ago, and perfectly timed to the occasion. There is an argument to be made for tax cuts as a fiscal stimulus, although I think they will do […]
Read moreDeficits. There. I said it. Are you afraid? You shouldn’t be. If, as I suggested in my previous post, monetary policy is proving ineffective and if fiscal policy needs to be a big part of the solution, then we must consider what for many has become the unthinkable. We must revisit our fear of deficits, that word — that state […]
Read moreThe Progressive Economics Forum’s open letter is now making the rounds. Signatories include four chairs of economics departments, two former Presidents of the Canadian Economics Association, a former federal Secretary of State (Finance), and a former Quebec Minister of Industry. Here’s the text and the 88 signatories: Open Letter from Canadian Economists on the Current Economic Crisis and the Appropriate […]
Read moreAs the federal political parties begin to make promises of new spending or tax cuts, the question arises as to how much fiscal room is available to Canada’s next government.The short answer is that the Conservatives and Liberals have locked themselves into the same fiscal box, and only the NDP has the room needed to make new commitments. As Erin […]
Read moreAs reported by Julian Beltram of Canadian Press: The federal government has started the new fiscal year in a rare deficit position, announcing yesterday it was $517 million in the red after two months as tax cuts and a slowing economy sliced into revenues. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said revenues fell $1.6 billion combined in April and May, 4.1 per […]
Read moreIt’s not often that I get my hopes up about a potential volte-face in the way we talk and think about economics at the policy and political level but this is by far the best news I’ve heard in a long long time. It seems that our very own Jamie Galbraith, scion of John Kenneth Galbraith and keynote speaker for […]
Read moreThe Fraser Institute says the debt monster is gonna getcha: The study, Canadian Government Debt 2008, shows that federal, provincial, and local governments have accumulated $791.2 billion in direct debt and more than $2.4 trillion in total government liabilities. Total liabilities include direct debt and programs that the government has committed to provide such as Old Age Security and Medicare […]
Read moreToday’s front page of the Globe and Mail business section calls out, Flaherty’s budget wiggle room shrinking.Which is indeed true, but what I find amusing is that I broke this story back in January. At the time, this was outside the consensus so many blew it off. But now that the mainstream has caught up, do I or any other […]
Read moreThis morning’s Consumer Price Index release reveals that, in March, annual inflation fell to 1.4% and annual core inflation fell to 1.3%. The fact that both rates are well below the Bank of Canada’s 2% target gives it ample room to cut interest rates next week. Even the two highest-inflation provinces, Alberta and Saskatchewan, are no longer much above the […]
Read moreHow about this latest gem from our let-the-market-rule Finance Minister: Les Whittington Ottawa Bureau, TORONTO STAR (APRIL 10) OTTAWA–Finance Minister Jim Flaherty says the Conservatives will cut government spending if need be to avoid a budget deficit caused by the economic slowdown. “No deficit – balanced budget,” he said outside the Commons. “We’re not raising taxes,” Flaherty added when asked […]
Read moreAh, the confluence of the events! The tabling of a “prudent†federal budget for uncertain times, followed a week later by news of slowing economic growth. Of course, rumors of the economy’s imminent decline may be greatly exaggerated, given January’s jobs report and trade data. But let’s carry forth with the economic accounts data. Earlier, Erin and Toby drew […]
Read moreA new release from Statistics Canada on infrastructure finds that: In the public sector, infrastructure is primarily concentrated in schools, hospitals, roads and water mains. In 2002, about one-third (34%) of assets were devoted to transportation in the public sector, unchanged from 1970. About 26% were devoted to recreation, culture and education, 13% to health and social protection and 11% […]
Read moreI am glad that Jim Flaherty’s budget did not actually come through with a rumoured exemption for capital gains income. Recall that the Conservatives’ 2006 platform had promised a ridiculous and unworkable exemption from income taxes on capital gains so long as the winnings were “re-invested.” This high-profile broken promise still clearly niggled the Harper government, and expectations were high […]
Read moreUsually when expectations are lowered it is so that they can subsequently be exceeded. So budget watchers were all wondering in the past few days what the surprise in this budget would be. Alas, the surprise is that there is no surprise. As expected we got a do-nothing budget, albeit one with a glossy cover of a child waving a […]
Read moreSince the provincial Liberals came to power in 2001 I have seen a lot of BC Budgets and not been too happy with any of them. Until now. Today’s 2008 model is a very interesting budget, and while I have a number of quibbles, I support the overall direction. And as in the recent past on climate change I find […]
Read moreA lot of US progressives, including Dean Baker, and Larry Mishel from the Economic Policy Institute, are weighing in on the need for a significant fiscal stimulus package, in the range of 1% of GDP. http://www.epi.org/subjectpages/stimulus.cfm Citing – entirely reasonably – the need for measures which will have a quick impact on a slowing economy, these packages tilt to income […]
Read moreGiven the storm clouds on the horizon, and the prospect of a slowdown/recession, one of the more interesting aspects of fiscal policy has to do with automatic stabilizers. As the economy turns, revenues will fall and expenditures on income support will naturally increase, driving the budget towards deficit and thereby propping up demand just as it is needed. The question […]
Read moreWith the recent turmoil in the markets, and the words “slowdown” and “recession” all over the news, the biggest danger is that it becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy. Consumers slow spending based on concerns about what comes next, and businesses put the brakes on new investments based on perceived soft demand. This could drive the economy into recession, and given the […]
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