I have an oped in today’s Vancouver Sun, juxtaposed against the Fraser Institute, unfortunately. I’d like to think mine is much more timely and appropriate given the current economic situation (I’ll get to theirs in a subsequent post). BC Needs an Action Plan to Fight a Nasty Recession On February 17 the BC government will table the province’s first recession […]
Read moreA year after crunching the numbers and coming to the conclusion that an economic downturn spelled deficits, I got this hat tip in Maclean’s: It’s true that there was no consensus forecast, through most of last year, that saw Canada suffering a deep recession in 2009, and a return to staggering deficits in Ottawa. However, it’s false to suggest that […]
Read moreHousing has been one of the major drivers of the BC economy in recent years. Low interest rates led to rising home prices and a psychology of “must get in before being locked out forever”; leading a housing bubble that had everyone in town swapping jaw dropping stories of bidding wars and outrageous prices paid. The economic driver was not […]
Read moreOver at Worthwhile Canadian Initiative, Stephen has posted a nice graph comparing the average projections from the private sector (as compiled by the Parliamentary Budget Officer) and the Bank of Canada with the paths of the last two recessions. He is poking a hole in a story that there is a gap between the more optimistic Bank view and the […]
Read moreFigures released by Statistics Canada this morning reveal that Canada’s real GDP dropped by 0.7% in November 2008, its largest monthly decline since a 1.0% drop because of the August 2003 power outage. With the exception of that unique event, November’s decline was the largest since at least February 1997, the oldest month for which precisely comparable figures are available. […]
Read morehas just been published and is avalaible here. It largely confirms research conducted by PEF members on household wealth, indebtedness and income. The report highlights the state of financial precarity of many households, the gap between income and spending, the growing debtload and the important impact the “recession” (if we still want to call it that, given its deflationary driven […]
Read moreWhy does the Globe oped page save all the good stuff for days when most people are not paying attention? In today’s edition, tax economist Jon Kesselman from SFU says reinforce the automatic stabilizers and focus on social needs: Getting more funds into the hands of individuals who most need support should take priority over cutting taxes. Much of traditional […]
Read moreThe best prof I ever had doing my undergrad at Western was David Laidler. I took a fourth year economic policy course with him, and learned a lot, especially a certain horror known as inflation (John Crow soon embarked on a disastrous war on inflation in the early 1990s that still sends shivers up many of our spines). Interestingly, Laidler […]
Read moreOK, there has been no such call. Yet. But mark my words, this panel will call for tax cuts as the federal government’s fiscal stimulus, and the government will deliver. The Economic Advisory Council is not exactly a representative group. No labour representation, no Aboriginal reps, no one from the social or non-profit sector whatsoever. Thus, the groups most likely […]
Read moreOn CBC news this weekend, they ran a string of stories about how families were cutting back this Christmas due to fears about the economy. There were no poor families interviewed; actually, they were all comfortably upper-middle class (the demographic stereotype of news and most television these days). One family spent $1,000 per kid (times four kids) last year. Perhaps […]
Read moreIt is not often that Canada makes the news in the US. Here’s the story from the New York Times summarizing the latest employment data, the economic update and the resulting political crisis. If we use the factor of ten rule of thumb, our drop of 70,600 jobs compares poorly to 533,000 lost in the US (although I do find […]
Read moreMuch of the debate about economic stimulus has been on infrastructure (picture the Hoover Dam, as Stephen Gordon comments). But there is more! One neglected area is around income support, including EI, the CCTB, GST credit and provincial social assistance programs. Below is the quick synopsis from the CCPA’s alternative economic and fiscal update, and thankfully, the Caledon Institute has […]
Read moreJames Galbraith kicks so much ass in this comment about a recent Paul Krugman column that I have to quote it for posterity’s sake (he basically agrees with PK). The question: Is the deficit a threat to future recovery. The answer: No. The question is grossly misconceived. Right now and for the immediate future, the budget deficit is the only […]
Read moreOver at Worthwhile Canadian Initiaitive, Stephen and Nick have been making the point that “Canada is not the United States, we are not in recession (although the odds that we will be soon are much better than even), and there’s no reason to rush into a program of public works”. To some extent, they are right, and that go-slow approach […]
Read moreThis political crisis is completely the fault of the Prime Minister. Having laid the groundwork for a solid economic update last week – by saying in Lima that he had learned the lessons of the Great Depression and that he would not rule out deficits – what was tabled was a plan that did nothing to address concerns about the […]
Read moreA friend of mine did this up. Please share it.
Read moreThe CCPA released an Alternative EFU today by yours truly (with lots of helpful comments from other PEF bloggers!). It is available here. The EFU is a prelude to the feds’ own EFU to be released Thursday. I modeled four scenarios of economic downturn to see what the status quo deficits look like, as other analyses to date have not […]
Read moreThis is very good news, given concerns that the economic crisis would push climate change off the table: Barack Obama and congressional leaders are preparing rapid legislation to cut US emissions that cause global warming and to kick-start a clean energy revolution. Two bills are to be introduced as soon as the President-elect takes office in January. One will provide […]
Read moreCanada now has a Parliamentary Budget Office to make budget projections for the Minister of Finance. This office in no small part owes its existence to the CCPA’s Alternative Federal Budget, which under Jim Stanford’s guidance, was the first and only voice to call the then-Liberal government on its excessively prudent (read: wrong) budget projections, and was so for years. […]
Read moreI’m just back from visiting family in England, and got to have a first-hand look at how the economic crisis is playing out on the other side of the Atlantic. Suffice it to say, it is the dominant story. Before we left, the Bank of England cut short-term interest rates by 1.5% and it was revealed that they had contemplated […]
Read moreLast night NDP Opposition Leader Carole James delivered her own televised address to the province, following on the Premier’s underwhelming address last week. This was a much better effort from James, with the speech probably aimed square at tomorrow’s two by-elections in Vancouver. With the BC election is still seven months away, this tit-for-tat game could get quite interesting by […]
Read moreBC Premier Gordon Campbell made a live address last night about the impact of the financial and economic crisis on the province, and what his government is going to do about it. I was keen to see what creative projects Campbell had in mind to take the edge of a recession that has already hit in Interior and Coastal communities […]
Read moreThere is a new line of thinking over at the Bank of Canada: rather than raising interest rates to maintain the inflation target at 2%, the Bank is now stating that it might have to cut rates (beyond the 25 bp reduction today and 50 bp a couple weeks ago) to maintain the target. From a central bank that in […]
Read moreOr would that be red? Anyway, our “left-leaning”, Keynesian thinking is quickly becoming the new centre. Fresh from endorsing PM Harper’s re-election, the Globe and Mail’s editorial page says: The scarred memories of $39-billion deficits are still fresh in the minds of many Canadians. We have been conditioned to demand that government stay out of deficit spending. Under all but […]
Read moreLast night when I was watching the US presidential debate on Newsworld, the ticker told a one-line story that the Conference Board of Canada’s latest forecast for 2008 economic growth has been lowered to 0.8%. It was a redemption or sorts because back in February I testified before the House Finance Committee with Glen Hodgson of the Conference Board. I […]
Read moreI was intrigued by what is happening in Iceland, so the following is a piece I’ve written on it. It has some introductory macro-economics in it, which I think it is good to keep in perspective as we consider the frantic attempts being made to prevent an economic depression. The economic and financial collapse of 2008 is shaping up to be […]
Read moreWhat irks me about the Harperites’ non-response to the economic crisis is their claim that they have responded by bringing in tax cuts, announced in the Economic and Fiscal Update almost a year ago, and perfectly timed to the occasion. There is an argument to be made for tax cuts as a fiscal stimulus, although I think they will do […]
Read moreThe Progressive Economics Forum’s open letter is now making the rounds. Signatories include four chairs of economics departments, two former Presidents of the Canadian Economics Association, a former federal Secretary of State (Finance), and a former Quebec Minister of Industry. Here’s the text and the 88 signatories: Open Letter from Canadian Economists on the Current Economic Crisis and the Appropriate […]
Read moreIf you pay attention to economic issues you have probably heard that a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of declining real (inflation-adjusted) GDP. It is pretty arbitrary, but on this basis, the most recent numbers had Canada missing the cut-off for recession by a hair. Indeed, it was a downward revision to the first quarter GDP number (which […]
Read moreWhat a cliff-hanger! 0.3% annualized growth for the 2Q, and no “official recession” (not yet, anyway). I win my own pool (with my 0.2% guess). I will devote my winnings to the CCPA. The other guesses are posted in the comments section of the original recession-watch blog post here: http://www.progressive-economics.ca/2008/08/09/jimbos-official-recession-watch-lottery/ Couple of tidbits in today’s GDP numbers: 1. If it […]
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