The Saskatchewan Party won 37 seats with 51% of the popular vote and the NDP won 21 seats with 37% of the vote. Obviously, the Saskatchewan Party’s victory is bad news for progressives. The provincewide figures mask significant regional variations. Outside of the main cities, the Saskatchewan Party won 27 seats with 62% of the rural vote. Two of the […]
Read moreHeather Scoffield had an interesting little “how-to” guide in Saturday’s Globe and Mail on the macroeconomic effects of the improvement in Canada’s terms of trade (the result of soaring global prices for the resources which Canada increasingly exports). The terms of trade, for the blissfully uninitiated, is the ratio of a country’s export prices to its import prices. You can […]
Read moreLike other disciplines, economics tends to organize material into narratives. It is worth scrutinizing the “stylized facts” that underlie these narratives, as page B15 of Saturday’s Globe endeavoured to do. One piece of conventional wisdom is that the Canadian dollar’s value is driven by the skyrocketing price of oil. David Wolf argued, and Heather Scoffield reported, that the loonie is probably […]
Read moreAlthough I generally disagree with Andrew Coyne’s take on economic issues, I enjoy his commentary because it is almost always articulate and well-informed. Last Saturday’s column, which may be his second-last at the National Post before moving to Maclean’s, was a glaring exception. In particular, it contradicted Coyne’s own previous contentions. When the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador took an equity […]
Read moreNotwithstanding the usual doom and gloom from the oil industry and its cheerleaders, Premier Stelmach’s decision to increase oil and gas royalties by $1.4 billion in 2009 is an unduly timid move in the right direction. The provincial NDP leader summed it up as follows: “The premier has compromised yet again a report that represented a compromise in the first […]
Read moreYesterday’s Ontario election was pretty crummy. Almost the entire campaign was dominated by a contrived issue. Turnout hit an all-time low, with barely more than half of eligible voters bothering to cast ballots. Despite a smaller percentage of the popular vote than in the last election, the McGuinty Liberals cruised to a huge majority. The more progressive NDP gained popular […]
Read moreSeptember 25, 2007 – The NEB decision: 17 jobs in hand and 18,000 in the bush Wed, 09/26/2007 – 09:40 — Fred Wilson (Full post can be found at http://blogs.cep.ca/en/node/53 Readers of this column have by now seen the reports of the National Energy Board decision to approve the Keystone pipeline. CEP has received extensive media coverage of its […]
Read moreYesterday, the Premier of Alberta addressed the Empire Club in Toronto. He said some encouraging things about Our Fair Share: “We will get a fair economic rent on the development of our resources. In fact we have recently received the recommendations of the Royalty Review Panel that I established as one of my first acts as Premier.” I am not […]
Read moreToday, Statistics Canada released a very interesting study on the economic demand that is driving greenhouse-gas emissions. Between 1990 and 2002, exports outstripped Canadians’ personal expenditure as the leading source of Canada’s industrial emissions. Indeed, exports accounted for essentially all of the increase in these emissions. Canadian Industrial Emissions (in megatons) Final-Demand Category 1990 2002 Exports 176.4 264.4 Personal Expenditure […]
Read moreLast week, the Royalty Review Panel recommended that Alberta raise its oil and gas royalties. Its 100-page final report, Our Fair Share, has generated healthy debate on a critically important subject. The basic message follows: Albertans do not receive their fair share from energy development and they have not, in fact, been receiving their fair share for quite some time. […]
Read moreWell, it happened. The petro-fueled loonie broke parity with the greenback yesterday, and is headed higher still. I can’t believe that so many people still interpret this as a symbol of our national renaissance. In fact, the reverse is true. The dollar’s flight both reflects, and simultaneously reinforces (in fine Kaldorian fashion) our regression into serving once again as a […]
Read moreThe Canadian Labour Congress sent the following letter to the Bank of Canada today. September 20, 2007 David A. Dodge Governor Bank of Canada 234 Wellington Street Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0G9 Dear Governor Dodge: I write to urge you to reduce interest rates by 0.5% on October 16th to match the recent US rate cut. My letter of June 27th […]
Read moreCIBC World Market recently put out quite an interesting report on the future of world oil supply and demand and the implications for Canada. ( OPEC’s Growing Call on Itself.) http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/occrept62.pdf The major point is that OPEC countries plus other major oil producing countries such as Russia and Mexico are consuming a fast-rising share of their own oil output at […]
Read moreIn April 2006, Newfoundland Premier Danny Williams walked away from proposed Hebron development because the multinational oil companies were not offering sufficient benefits for his province. The national media and federal government heaped scorn on this decision. A couple of days ago, Williams secured a new deal that gives the province a 4.9% equity stake in Hebron, a 6.5% “super […]
Read moreI am big on big investment spending. I’ve argued for years that weak business investment undermines our job creation, our productivity, our incomes, and our competitiveness. I’ve proposed lots of policy measures to stimulate more investment spending: public as well as private. But what’s happening in northern Alberta is enough to nauseate even a Soviet-esque advocate of mass capital accumulation […]
Read moreNew CEPR Paper Looks At Venezuela’s Economy During the Chávez Years For Immediate Release: July 26, 2007 Contact: Dan Beeton, 202-293-5380 x104 Washington, DC: A new paper from the Center for Economic and Policy Research looks at the Venezuelan economy during the last eight years and finds that it does not fit the mold of an “oil boom headed for […]
Read moreA centrepiece of Canada’s industrial policy is attracting foreign investment. This seems to me a lack of imagination on the part of our elites; rather than develop genuine industrial stategies, so much the better to just let foreign capital come and create the jobs for us. And in the resource sector, the flipside of investment is that we lose control […]
Read moreIt is worth filing under the “you heard it here first” heading that both the Globe and Mail and the Toronto Star have taken editorial positions similar to those proffered by Relentlessly Progressive Economics. That is, the Bank of Canada is raising interest rates because of what is happening in Alberta, and in doing so threatens to exacerbate difficulties in […]
Read morehttp://www.canada.com/ottawacitizen/news/opinion/story.html?id=6c433a24-f12a-4584-9706-9f123ded8234 A good piece from today’s Ottawa Citizen. I’ve been similarly struck by the concern re foreign state involvement in our resource sector, combined with evident lack of concern about loss of domestic control of resource development. Whether we would get that from greater Canadian capitalist ownership of resource companies as opposed to more public owneship and regulation is a […]
Read moreRelatively high inflation in Alberta seems to be the only justification for raising Canadian interest rates. In this context, it is tremendously significant that the Government of Alberta itself opposes increasing rates. Of course, higher interest rates imply a higher Canadian dollar. Alberta sells oil and gas, the prices of which are denominated in US dollars. As the Canadian dollar […]
Read moreMore fascinating stuff from that CIBC report follows: While many of the big names in the mining and metal processing industry have been spoken for, there are even larger capital inflows potentially still ahead in the energy sector. Thanks to the oil sands, and a still laissez-faire attitude towards ownership of those resources, Canada represents anywhere from 50-60% of the […]
Read moreAround lunchtime I got a knock on the door, and a good-looking young woman was there to make a sales call for Univeral Gas. She was seeking to convert my natural gas supply under a newly deregulated market. I asked her if she would leave behind materials so that I could think about it. No dice. She wanted me to […]
Read moreThe National Energy Board is holding hearings into the proposal to ship Alberta tar sands bitumen to the US for further refining – something of a reductio ad absurdum in terms of resource-led development. Fred Wilson from CEP is writing a daily blog from the hearings where his union, the Parkland Institute and other Alberta progressives are intervenors. If you […]
Read moreBusiness Week (May 28 issue) documents how US big oil is ploughing the windfall gains from high prices into share buy backs rather than new production. Exxon Mobil – the world’s most profitable company – pumped out $49 Billion in operating cash flow last year, just 40% went into new capital expenditures, down from 50% in 2000. The other 60% […]
Read moreThe following op-ed, which is printed in today’s Vancouver Sun, picks up some key themes from this blog:   Subsidizing the transfer of jobs abroad Vancouver Sun Monday, June 4, 2007 Page: A7 Section: Editorial Byline: Erin Weir Source: Special to the Sun At a time when Kitimat and many other Canadian communities are losing manufacturing jobs, why would […]
Read moreFresh off of getting cut off mid-presentation by an uptight Conservative, who we discovered later was only following orders, Gord Laxer makes his case: Easterners could freeze in the dark GORDON LAXER … while Canada, as part of our bilateral Security and Prosperity Partnership initiative, supports U.S. efforts to wean itself off Middle Eastern oil, I noted that we do […]
Read moreBy walking out on Gordon Laxer’s testimony about the SPP’s potential impact on Canadian energy security, the Conservatives have given him far more media coverage than he otherwise might have received. Today, the following story appeared in The Montreal Gazette, The Ottawa Citizen and The Edmonton Journal: Tory chair storms out of SPP hearing Freezing in the dark ‘not relevant’ to […]
Read moreYesterday’s International Merchandise Trade Annual Review from StatsCan confirms the Mel Watkins thesis that Canada is rapidly reverting to its historical role as a commodity producer for the global economy. http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/070508/d070508a.htm From 2002, the Canadian dollar began to appreciate rapidly against the US dollar (and Asian currencies tied to the US dollar) in response to a commodity price boom, itself […]
Read moreThe following, from today’s Toronto Star, includes some commentary from yours truly: The China syndrome: A new condition characterized by the apparent reluctance of a certain national government to embrace an emerging, global economic power May 05, 2007
Read moreThe Globe and Mail has run three major stories about Alcan in the past few days: Act I: “Alcan says tax makes it takeover bait” (April 27) Act II: “B.C. town may fight Alcan” (April 28) Act III: “$7-billion project deepens Alcan’s Gulf ties” (May 1) Alcan is a major Canadian-based multinational that produces aluminum. Bauxite, the basic raw material, […]
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