Canada’s extended summer of deflation ended in October, when the national inflation rate rose to 0.1%. This change reflects a lowered base of comparison: the price of gasoline plummeted between September and October of last year. The return of inflation should not be overstated. Today’s inflation rate is barely positive and falls short of the 0.3% that analysts had been […]
Read moreAs yesterday’s Labour Force Survey confirmed, the recession continues for the vast majority of Canadians, who rely on employment for most of their income. But the technical measure of a recession is consecutive quarterly declines in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Some have suggested that, even by this measure, the recession continues. Of course, we will not have a definitive […]
Read moreI purchase a monthly unadjusted Labour Force Survey data series from StatsCan that provides monthly labour force trends by age, sex, province, and type of job (full-time, part-time, by industry, and by status – self-employed or employed). This is a helpful addition to the published monthly stats in The Daily, which use seasonally adjusted numbers from the Labour Force Survey. […]
Read moreUPDATE (November 7): Quoted by The Toronto Star and Canadian Press Today’s release of negative job numbers for October undoes much of the surprisingly strong reported improvement in September. The national unemployment rate is again closer to 9% than to 8%. Canada-US Comparison The US unemployment rate cracking 10% will undoubtedly garner much Canadian attention. While the absolute level of […]
Read moreCanadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell by 0.1% in August. The decline mainly reflected temporary closures of major oil rigs, mines and mills due to maintenance or labour disputes. This explanation is valid, as far as it goes. However, the broader issue is that more widespread economic growth should be more than offsetting these isolated events. Today’s release reveals a […]
Read moreThis blog flagged, and Worthwhile Canadian Initiative pursued, a striking discrepancy in July’s employment data. The Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (SEPH) indicated that employers paid 74,000 more employees. Conversely, the Labour Force Survey (LFS) had indicated that employers paid 79,000 fewer employees in July. This difference of 153,000 exceeds 1% of Canada’s workforce. Today’s release of SEPH figures […]
Read moreToday’s Employment Insurance (EI) figures indicate that, in August, 23,000 more Canadians filed EI claims but 19,000 fewer received EI benefits. The most optimistic possibility is that all of the workers who stopped receiving benefits got jobs. Indeed, the Labour Force Survey indicates that total employment rose by 27,000 in August. However, that is not the end of the story. […]
Read moreI recommend reading at least the executive summary of the Stiglitz Commission. The Commission was appointed by President Sarkozy of France to look at statistical measures of economic performance and social progress. It brought together most of the leading international experts in the area – including Amartya Sen who served as Adviser to the Chair – and is a highly […]
Read moreWhile some prices rose slightly and others fell slightly between July, August and September, the total Consumer Price Index has remained exactly the same through these months. The annual inflation rate declined by 0.9% in September, tying July for the largest rate decline since 1953. All provinces but Saskatchewan now have negative inflation. While the main story continues to be […]
Read moreOn Thanksgiving, Canadians can be thankful that public stimulus spending propelled a surprisingly strong labour-market rebound in September. This morning’s release shows full-time employment up and the unemployment rate down. However, the jobs picture is not as rosy as these top-line numbers imply. Stimulus Working? The improvement in Canada’s labour market should not be taken as an indication that government […]
Read moreI just saw Michael Ignatieff on TV warning that Canada could hit “the deficit wall.†I assume he means “debt wall.†(I would not fault a slip of the tongue, but the written text of a recent speech also incorrectly calls it “the deficit wall.â€) The concept is not that a country hits the wall because a particular annual deficit […]
Read moreFlat Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for July provide a sobering reminder that the technical end of a recession may not imply a rapid recovery. Output appears to have stopped shrinking, but this morning’s release suggests stabilization rather than growth. Rounding to the nearest billion, all-industry GDP has been $1,184 billion for three months. It had peaked at $1,241 billion […]
Read moreUPDATE (September 29): Quoted by The Globe and Mail, National Post, Toronto Star, and Canadian Press . . . A recent inquiry for a NOW Magazine article has inspired me to use the July Employment Insurance (EI) figures, released this morning, to examine how this program serves Canadian cities. However, I begin with a national overview of the numbers and […]
Read moreJanice MacKinnon’s op-ed on Employment Insurance (EI) in Monday’s National Post read almost as if it had been written before the economic crisis. There was no mention of mass layoffs or rising unemployment, let alone proposals to enhance EI in response to these trends. Instead, she sees the biggest problem with EI as being the supposed drag on labour mobility […]
Read moreThis morning’s consumer price figures for August are reminiscent of July. The annual Consumer Price Index decline was 0.8% (compared to 0.9% last month.) With the exception of July, August was the sharpest drop in consumer prices since 1953. In both July and August, eight of ten provinces posted negative inflation rates. The only province with positive inflation in both […]
Read moreLayoffs Continue Today’s Labour Force Survey indicates that full-time employment declined by 4,000 in August. There were 7,000 fewer jobs in goods-producing industries. Retailers Hire A surprising 21,000 new jobs in retail and wholesale trade propelled economy-wide employment up by 27,000. This increase consisted entirely of part-time jobs. While any employment gain is welcome news, the quality of these new […]
Read moreA key justification for small-business tax breaks is that small enterprises are supposedly engines of job creation. The Canadian Federation of Independent Business’ (CFIB) oft-repeated claim that “small- and medium-size businesses employ more than half the workforce” (PDF) cites Statistics Canada’s Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours. A closer examination of that Survey casts doubt on this statement, the quantity […]
Read moreThis morning’s Gross Domestic Product figures put the lie to Prime Minister Harper’s claim that “we will come out of this faster than anyone.” While many other advanced economies grew or stabilized during the second quarter of 2009, the Canadian economy shrank by 0.9%. During this period, three G7 countries – Japan, Germany and France – experienced economic growth. The […]
Read moreUPDATE (August 26): Quoted by Canadian Press, Canwest, The Toronto Star and Hamilton Spectator It was the best of times, it was the worst of times… It would be welcome news if the number of Canadians receiving Employment Insurance (EI) benefits increased because of a proactive policy decision to expand this program to combat the recession. In fact, the ongoing rise […]
Read moreIn July, the Consumer Price Index posted an annual decline of 0.9%, the most negative inflation rate since July of 1953. This decline is troubling not only because it is larger than last month’s decline, but also because it is more widespread. Recent decreases in inflation have mainly been driven by lower gasoline prices in 2009 compared to 2008. This […]
Read moreAfter many months in which tens of thousands of jobs disappeared, the revelation that “only” 7,400 fewer Canadians were working in June may seem like good news. But this relatively small decline in total employment masks more ominous trends. Self-Employment In June, employers eliminated 44,600 paid positions in Canada, but 37,200 more Canadians declared themselves to be self-employed. This development […]
Read moreToday’s Employment Insurance (EI) figures confirm that fewer than half of unemployed Canadians received EI benefits in April. Although 18,600 more Canadians received benefits in April than in March, this was the smallest increase in six months. The relatively modest increase in EI beneficiaries corresponds to a relatively small increase in official unemployment during April, the month in which the […]
Read moreThis morning’s Consumer Price Index data reveals that the national inflation rate fell to 0.1% in May. Four provinces – Alberta, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island – posted negative inflation rates. The supposed risk of continuing fiscal and monetary stimulus too long is that they could propel accelerating inflation. The Finance Minister and Bank of Canada Governor have […]
Read moreAccording to today’s Labour Force Survey, the national unemployment increase (83,800) was twice the employment decrease (41,800) in May. The explanation is that the labour force expanded by 42,000 as Canada’s population continued to grow. While some people are entering the labour market and getting jobs, many more are being laid off. As a result, total unemployment blew past the […]
Read moreThis morning, Statistics Canada revealed the country’s worst-kept secret: the economy contracted for a second consecutive quarter in the first three months of 2009. Adjusted for inflation, Gross Domestic Product dropped by 1.4%. If this trend continued (and compounded) for a year, the Canadian economy would be 5.4% smaller. On the other hand, this decline was not bad enough to […]
Read moreMarch’s large increase in Employment Insurance (EI) recipients was no surprise given mass layoffs and February’s record-high number of EI benefit claims. But when compared to Labour Force Survey figures on March unemployment, today’s figures provide a sobering reminder that well below half of unemployed Canadians receive EI benefits. Employment Insurance Coverage, March 2009   EI Recipients Unemployment EI […]
Read moreToday’s Consumer Price Index provides an important reminder that, despite expansive monetary policy from central banks and perceived “green shoots†in the economy, deflation remains a more serious risk than rising inflation. In April, the national inflation rate fell to 0.4%. Four provinces – Alberta, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island – posted negative inflation rates. While falling […]
Read moreHere is my take on today’s Labour Force Survey: Self-Employment Surge April’s apparent gain in employment was entirely due to increased self-employment. Specifically, total employment rose by 36,000 while self-employment rose by 37,000, meaning that 1,000 fewer Canadians were paid by employers last month. One must ask whether more Canadians are becoming self-employed voluntarily or because they cannot find jobs […]
Read moreStatistics Canada has revealed that, adjusted for inflation, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) declined by 0.1% in February. This decline is on par with September and October, but far less severe than November (-0.7%), December (-1.0%), and January (-0.7%). There are grounds for hope in that a slower pace of decline is a necessary precondition for a return to economic growth. […]
Read moreThe Consumer Price Index decline in March confirms that deflation remains a greater risk than rising inflation. The annual inflation rate fell to 1.2% nationally and turned negative in one province, Prince Edward Island. The recent revelation of the first annual decline in American consumer prices in half a century underscores concerns about deflation. While falling prices benefit consumers with […]
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