There are some interesting if rather subtle differences between the fiscal situation of the federal government as forecast in the last Budget, and that given to us yesterday in the Update. Not much change to the revenue picture, with 09-10 being a bit better than forecast, and next year being a bit weaker than forecast. Debt charges are a bit […]
Read moreA week ago, the Government of Saskatchewan released the Conference Board of Canada’s report on the possible Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan (PCS) takeover. It provides 77 pages of useful information, but is disappointingly thin on policy recommendations. The Conference Board downplays concerns about BHP leaving Canpotex after acquiring PCS. It argues that, with or without Canpotex, profit maximization would motivate […]
Read moreThe Update of Economic and Fiscal Projections released today is fairly upbeat on the recovery in the job market, noting that “all of the jobs lost during the recession have now been recouped.” Well yes, but that still leaves us down 211,000 permanent full-time employee positions, with all of the net job creation over teh past year or so having […]
Read moreHere’s a new take on bringing economic theory to the masses — a rap battle between Keynes and Hayek. What’s amazing about it is the amount of solid (if not plain nerdy) content this video packs into such a short time. It’s fun to watch for sure (very high production values), but you get that much more out of it […]
Read moreIt would be funny if it wasn’t so sad. In the news today: Statistics Canada has been trying to find $7 million in cuts. Five surveys have been axed so far. But those five don’t add up to enough savings, so more cuts to come. That’s on top of the surveys cut, throttled or mothballed mentioned in this post, and […]
Read moreThe following will appear in the Hill Times’ October 18th edition. The Harper Conservatives repeatedly banged Canadians over the head this summer with their minority viewpoint on Canada’s long-form census questionnaire. The questions, they said, were intrusive, and the government coercive for expecting answers. Mandatory suddenly became an ugly word for the law-and-order brigade. Interestingly, their actions on the census […]
Read moreIn an announcement that largely went unnoticed last week, U.S. Steel said it plans to close down the blast furnace at Stelco’s Hilton Works in Hamilton, Ontario. Hilton Works was once the main steelmaking operation of what was once Canada’s largest integrated steelmaker. Its demise exposes how Stelco has been reduced to a mere shell of its former glorious self. […]
Read moreSo, Export Development Canada (EDC) has agreed to lend Vale up to $1 billion US. This announcement comes on the heels of a bitter labour dispute at Vale’s Sudbury mines and in the midst of an ongoing strike at its Voisey’s Bay operations. The financial rationale is unclear. Although $1 billion is very large for an EDC loan, it is […]
Read moreIt would have been interesting to listen in on the discussion of Bay Street economists with Finance Minister Flaherty earlier this week. Not all of the banks have current forecasts on line, and they differ somewhat in terms of detail and relative degree of optimism or pessimism. Nonetheless, it seems clear that growth in 2011 will likely be significantly lower […]
Read moreNow that I am working for the International Trade Union Confederation in Brussels, I have some observations about life here. Rather than pollute Relentlessly Progressive Economics with a bunch of goofy anecdotes, I have started a new blog: Beer with Weir. Check it out!
Read moreI was disturbed to read this comment on the current state of the US economy in Mark Carney’s speech last week. “The natural rate of (US) unemployment may be increasing sharply. The scale of industry restructuring means that some unemployed workers do not have the skills suitable for the expanding sectors. Other job seekers are tied to their local area, […]
Read moreIn case progressives needed another reason to distrust Michael Ignatieff, he just pulled the rug out from under Employment Insurance improvements: Michael Ignatieff is reversing his support for a wide range of enhancements to Employment Insurance (EI) benefits, saying they are too expensive and are no longer required. The Liberal Leader attempted to provoke a federal election around this time […]
Read moreNeil Reynolds has issued yet another diatribe in the Globe, “A Shameful Spending Spree” He argues that inflation adjusted government spending per person has grown by about 50% over the past 30 years. He uses 1982 as the base year. Was all this inflation-plus spending really necessary? Yes, it includes health costs and education costs but does every man, every […]
Read moreAmong the concerns about the HST that we at the CCPA have raised was the poor timing of the tax change. From my pre-budget piece last September: If British Columbians respond to the HST by reducing their consumer spending, the timing of the HST introduction may actually slow down the economic recovery, which should be getting under way next summer. […]
Read moreToday CCPA released a new report by myself and Ken Carlaw, an economist at UBC-Okanagan, called Climate Justice, Green Jobs and Sustainable Production in BC. I doubt you’ll see any headlines about it in the major news dailies, but I think it will have a longer-lasting impact as a key economic framing piece for our Climate Justice Project. In the […]
Read moreYesterday afternoon, Alex Usher–who regularly blogs for the Globe and Mail on post-secondary education–blogged about an innovative concept proposed by the (now ousted) Liberal Party in New Brunswick’s recent provincial election campaign. The proposal is for universities to charge students one flat fee for the cost of a degree. Usher argues in favour of this move on the basis that it would […]
Read moreCabinet ministers from the governments of Ontario and Quebec have sent a letter to Minister Tony Clement, calling the census decision a “mistake” and asking that the federal government “reverse this course of action as soon as possible”. The provinces, together, represent 62% of the labour market and spend billions of dollars every year on training and education. The Ministers […]
Read moreThis morning, the Canadian Foundation for Economic Education hosted a Bay Street breakfast meeting with Stockwell Day, President of the Treasury Board of Canada. Jim serves on the Foundation’s Board of Directors, but could not make today’s session. So, Armine and I ended up having breakfast with Tories at Torys. (Some other participants may not have been Tories, but I […]
Read moreThe following will appear in the Hill Times on Monday, September 27, 2010 Everyone knows that the Harper government’s decision on the census is destructive madness, including the Harper government. But there is a growing sense that it’s too late to reverse the decision. It’s not. The Harper government has been saying it’s too late to change things since early […]
Read moreMy Globe and Mail column today looks at the issue of trade imbalances in global trade. Countries like Germany have stimulated their own recoveires (for now) by deliberately targeting large trade surpluses; this strategy has also been followed for years by China, Japan, Korea, and others enamoured with export-led growth (which is a totally different animal, keep in mind, from […]
Read moreThe fact that 31,400 fewer Canadians received regular Employment Insurance (EI) benefits in July would be good news if it reflected an improved job market. But the Labour Force Survey indicates that, in July, employment decreased by 9,300 and unemployment increased by 17,900. These figures suggest that thousands of unemployed workers are running out of EI benefits without finding jobs. […]
Read moreOn September 9th, Canada’s Prime Minister received a letter from Mel Cappe, David Dodge, Alex Himelfarb and Ivan Fellegi. It opened with a stern warning that government actions with regard to the census over the summer “put the well earned credibility and respected international standing of Statistics Canada at risk”. Then they told him how to fix the problem. [The […]
Read moreBC’s carbon tax was supposed to be “revenue neutral”, meaning all carbon tax revenue would be “recycled” to British Columbians through personal income tax cuts, corporate income tax cuts and a low-income credit. When the 2008 budget launched the carbon tax, we were provided with a forecast that had revenues precisely match recycling through tax cuts and credits, with about […]
Read moreMany blog readers are no doubt aware that, late last month, the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives released a paper by David Macdonald entitled “Canada’s Housing Bubble:Â An Accident Waiting to Happen.” As the title suggests, Macdonald argues: Canada is experiencing, for the first time in the last 30 years, a synchronized housing bubble across the six largest residential real […]
Read moreToday’s Consumer Price Index release told a tale of two inflations. The national rate decreased from 1.8% to 1.7% while Ontario’s inflation rate remained at 2.9%, the highest in Canada. Monetary Policy Of course, monetary policy should reflect the whole country. The national inflation rate decreasing to 1.7% in August begs the question of why the Bank of Canada has […]
Read moreA globeandmail.com article posted last night discusses a recent report on post-secondary education in Nova Scotia. The report itself, released yesterday, was written by BMO’s former Chief Economist, Tim O’Neill. According to the article, O’Neill’s report calls for “complete deregulation of tuition fees” in Nova Scotia. Moreover: He believes that higher tuitions are more equitable because they force students, who are disproportionately […]
Read moreI have an opinion piece out on “pathway colleges,” a relatively new phenomenon in Canada. In this public-private partnership (P3) model, private companies recruit international students to Canadian university campuses, targeting students who currently do not meet the university’s admissions criteria (usually because they lack the necessary English-language skills). Once the students arrive in Canada, the company hires instructors (paying them considerably less […]
Read moreMurray Mandryk, CanWest’s seasoned Saskatchewan political columnist, has been writing some pretty sharp columns on potash. In particular, he questions excessively low resource royalties: . . . the messaging from Energy Minister Bill Boyd that his government wouldn’t touch oil royalty rates (even when it was selling at $150 a barrel), and the potash companies should get most anything they […]
Read moreThe following will appear in the Hill Times print edition next Monday, September 20, sans the groovy chart and links. Falling response rates and declining voter turnouts are two symptoms of increased disengagement in the mechanisms that inform and channel collective concerns. In such a political climate, the mandatory census long form questionnaire is a tool that can help keep […]
Read moreThe OECD Economic Survey of Canada (unfortunately only a summary is available on line) was released this week, and its call to impose user fees or deductibles on services covered by Medicare (ie physician and hospital care) received quite a lot of media coverage. I saw OECD economist Peter Jarrett doing at least two TV interviews here in Canada which […]
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