The survey of private sector economists released by the Department of Finance today offers up a pretty bleak forecast that the national unemployment rate will average 8.5% in 2010, up a bit from the 8.3% average in 2009 and up a bit from 8.4% last month (December, 2009) . http://www.fin.gc.ca/n10/data/2010-08_1e.pdf That forecast strikes me as pretty much bang on or […]
Read moreOxfam are seeking endorsements of this letter by professional economists. If you want to sign on, please notify Sophie Freeman: SFreeman@Oxfam.org.uk Dear G20 As economists from across the world, we call on you to implement a financial transaction tax (FTT). This tax is an idea that has come of age. The financial crisis has shown us the dangers of unregulated […]
Read moreAdvocates of the Harmonized Sales Tax often suggest that it will support Ontario’s beleaguered manufacturing sector. They emphasize that the current Provincial Sales Tax applies not only to finished products purchased by consumers, but also to some inputs purchased by businesses. As one business sells components to another, sales tax could be paid repeatedly along the supply chain. This “cascading†[…]
Read moreThe Global Labour University are publishing Global Labour Columns on the general theme of how labour should be responding to the crisis. The most recent is by yours truly, re working some pieces previously posted to this blog. The other columns posted are well worth a look. http://column.global-labour-university.org/
Read moreToday’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) release paints a significantly improved picture of the Canadian economy. GDP rose by 0.4% in November. Statistics Canada also revised upward its previously released figures. GDP grew by 0.3% instead of 0.2% in October and 0.5% instead of 0.4% in September. While these figures are encouraging, they imply a slower annual growth rate than the 5.7% […]
Read moreIf you want to be reminded of the myriad of ways in which markets fail, you will welcome the new and timely book by John Cassidy titled simply How Markets Fail. Cassidy is not only an economist but a rare one who can write. Indeed, he writes so well that he is a regular contributor to the writerly The New […]
Read moreThe content in the EI report by myself and Sylvain Schetagne which was released by the CCPA yesterday won’t be new to readers of this blog – an updating of trends in unemployment and EI use to show that tens of thousands of workers who lost their jobs early in the Great Recession are and will soon be exhausting benefits […]
Read moreA new study published today by the Frontier Institute for Public Policy finds that Vancouver has the most unaffordable urban housing market not just in Canada, but in all of Australia, Ireland, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States. This conclusion is based on a very simple, yet effective measure of housing affordability: the ratio of median housing […]
Read moreSTEERING COMMITTEE OF PROVINCIAL/TERRITORIAL MINISTERS ON PENSION COVERAGE AND RETIREMENT INCOME ADEQUACY OPTIONS FOR INCREASING PENSION COVERAGE AMONG PRIVATE SECTOR WORKERS IN CANADA EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This paper released by BC Finance Minister Colin Hansen for the provincial/territorial ministers indicates much more fundamental problems with our pension system than those identified in the Mintz Report and gives serious consideration to the […]
Read moreI’ve been very pleasantly surprised at the public response to the tragic earthquake in Haiti. I’ve seen donations being collected through school bake sales, at the liquor store, and on Hockey Night in Canada, among the usual channels for such stuff. It’s nice to know that, collectively, we care, in spite of the neglect of Haiti by our elected governments […]
Read moreOn the eve of the Whitehorse meeting of Finance Ministers in December, the Howe released a report co-authored by Bill Robson which charged that the federal government’s pension plan liabilities on behalf of its own employees are greatly under-stated – to the tune of $58 billion. This sum should, he argued, be added to the federal public debt. http://www.cdhowe.org/pdf/backgrounder_122.pdf As […]
Read moreThe number of Canadians receiving regular Employment Insurance (EI) benefits declined by 7,300 in November. As always, we do not know whether these workers found jobs or simply ran out of benefits. The Labour Force Survey indicated higher employment and slightly lower unemployment that month, which supports a positive interpretation. Following these declines in recipients and in unemployment, the proportion […]
Read moreThe obvious headline from today’s Statistics Canada release is inflation rising to 1.3% in December, its highest level in almost a year. However, the Consumer Price Index actually decreased between November and December. The overall price level was down 0.3% in absolute terms and 0.1% on a seasonally-adjusted basis. The annual inflation rate rose only due to a lower base […]
Read moreThe case for a Financial Transactions Tax or FTT has crept in from the margins remarkably quickly. One year ago, the proposal for an internationally co-ordinated “Tobin Tax†on foreign exchange transactions was a dim memory from the early part of the decade. Today, the idea of broadening such a tax to include a far wider range of transactions such […]
Read moreThe Global Labour University are publishing an interesting series of Global Labour Columns. The most recent by Patrick Belser – author of the ILO Global Wage Report – looks at the impact of the Great Recession on wages. http://column.global-labour-university.org/2010/01/why-we-should-care-about-wages.html “Focusing on unemployment rates alone understates the true extent of the deterioration of employment and conditions of work in labour markets. […]
Read moreStraight Goods contacted me last week for an article about what the federal Conservatives might cut to balance the budget. This concern is understandable given the previous Liberal government’s slash-and-burn approach to deficits. At a minimum, the Conservatives may use the deficit as cover to remove funding from particular programs or organizations that they dislike. However, the Conservatives do not […]
Read moreThere is an interesting piece on productivity in today’s Daily looking at the changing relationship between output change and employment change in recessions, over time and as between Canada and the US. One part of the story is that employers used to hoard labour during recessions, but are now inclined to cut jobs and hours quickly in response to a […]
Read moreWe do, but many of us, particularly of the orthodox persuasion, do our best to hide it in our work. Where we live is “content” but the models we use, we insist, are universal. But that begs the question of where the models, which do not fall from the sky, come from. The answer is that they come from particular […]
Read moreIt’s shocking to think that the 2010 Winter Games are now exactly one month away. Yes, the banners are dropping down the side of downtown buildings; huge tents are being erected anywhere there is open space; advertising from any but the Olympic sponsors has all but disappeared (I hereby challenge any Olympic athlete to eat McDonald’s daily between now and […]
Read moreCSPI have just published the second edition of my book, Work and Labour in Canada: Critical Issues. While this is written mainly as a text for university level courses, others may find it useful as a resource on a wide range of labour market issues and trends, including the role of unions. The book can be ordered from CSPI or […]
Read moreThis month, I strangely find myself of the cover of BC Business magazine, along with four other economists (online version here). All but one academic are policy-oriented economists who comment regularly on the BC economic scene. The tag line for the cover goes like this: The Economists: They were supposed to predict the Great Recession but didn’t. Some even say […]
Read moreThis IMF staff paper – the lead author is the chief economist, Olivier Blanchard -is well worth reading. Makes a rather urgent call for expansion of internal consumption demand in China and currency realignments if we are to work our way out of the crisis. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/spn/2009/spn0929.pdf
Read moreBoth employment and unemployment edged down between November and December, reflecting a smaller total labour force. This news raises concern that some jobless workers are leaving the labour force altogether. However, the labour-force decrease was only 9,000, far smaller than the previous monthly increase. Overall employment changed so little because private-sector payrolls stabilized. While stability is welcome after the recent […]
Read moreThe more I read about the Parliamentary Budget Officer Kevin Page, the more respect I have for him. He has proven to be an excellent choice for his position, much to the dismay of the Conservative government who created his job in the first place, back in the days when open government was on the agenda. Apparently, Mr. Page has […]
Read moreFurther to my earlier post on the Mintz report on pensions http://www.progressive-economics.ca/2009/12/20/the-mintz-report-and-the-pensions-debate/ Statistics Canada have released the major study on income replacement rates in retirement by Yuri Ostrovsky and Grant Schellenberg which was cited at some length by Mintz. http://cansim2.statcan.gc.ca/cgi-win/cnsmcgi.pgm?Lang=E&AS_Abst=11F0019M2009321&ResultTemplate=/Stu-Etu/Anal_RchAbst The study looks at the incomes of retirees in their early 70s in 2006 in relation to their earnings some […]
Read moreNine days ago, I posted some back-of-envelope math on the proposal to privatize the Liquor Control Board of Ontario (LCBO). Specifically, I noted that keeping its annual profit of $1.4 billion would be worth more than the estimated sale price of $10 billion, which would reduce provincial debt charges by no more than $0.5 billion per year. PublicValues.ca and the […]
Read moreMy commentary on Tuesday morning’s Employment Insurance release mentioned the simultaneous Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (SEPH) release. The SEPH indicated that, from October 2008 through October 2009, average weekly earnings edged up 1.6% across all Canadian payrolls. Earnings fell in forestry, construction, manufacturing, and a few service industries. But no one reported the most striking figure: earnings in […]
Read moreIn October, Canada’s inflation-adjusted Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 0.16%, which rounds up to 0.2%. While a second consecutive month of growth is unambiguously good news, we should be concerned about the amount and type of growth. Amount of Growth Real GDP (in chained 2002 dollars) dropped from a peak of $1,241 billion in July 2008 to a trough […]
Read moreThere is more evidence in today’s release of EI data that the decline in the number of EI beneficiaries is being driven by exhaustion of benefits rather than by a fall in unemployment. Between September and October, the number of unemployed (seasonally adjusted) rose by 37,700 but the number of regular EI beneficaries (also seasonally adjusted) fell by 4,040. Between […]
Read moreToday’s Employment Insurance (EI) release indicates that 4,000 fewer Canadians received benefits in October. The key unanswered question is whether these workers found jobs or simply ran out of benefits. To make matters more ambiguous, the two main employment measures point in opposite directions. The Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours for October, also released this morning, indicates that non-farm […]
Read more